Sadly the easiest part of our parlay yesterday got postponed so we missed out on a free 2.55 multiplier but it is what it is. Even though I'm certain yesterday's parlay was hitting, I'm not going to count it for the W/L nor average odds just to be fair.
Parlay W/L 3-0
Average Odds - 3.38
Yesterday's picks:
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich - Over 0.5 goals HT for Bayern @ 1.66 ✅
Eupen vs Genk - 2 @ 1.53 ⌛
2.55 Combined odds ⌛
Genk game postponed
Today's picks :
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle - 2 @ 2.10 ❌
Leicester vs Brighton - 2 @ 2.05 ❌
Combined Odds - 4.30 ❌
[If you like the tips let me know by buying me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/egotips)
When we hit 10 supporters, I will make a group where I will be posting all of my personal plays, unit (bankroll) management and live picks with insane value :)
Got some really nice things planned in the future so Bonam fortunam!
Man my 4-fold parlay @ x30 odds was dependent on a brighton 1X2 win, this sucks big time especially since the other 3 bets had much higher odds than this :(
Hello all. These are my picks today. BOL!
|No.|Fixture|Selection|Odds|Result|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|1.|Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad|Real Sociedad to win first half|3.20|✅|
|2.|Wolfsburg vs Freiburg|Freiburg to win first half|3.20|❌|
|3.|Leicester vs Brighton|Brighton to win first half|2.50|❌|
|4.|Watford vs Rotherham|Rotherham to win first half|5.50|✅|
|5.|Bristol City vs Blackburn|Bristol City to win first half|2.70|❌|
|6.|Derby vs Bolton|HT Under 0.5|2.75|❌|
|7.|Salernitana vs Napoli|HT Over 2.5|4.30||
# Pre-match Analysis
1. Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad
**Real Sociedad to win first half** @ 3.20
Real Sociedad come into this match with eight straight wins in all competitions. Sociedad (W4-D1-L0, 10-3 goals scored/conceded) have been in better form than Rayo (W2-D2-L1, 7-6).
The odds of the HT moneyline and goal total markets seem to be projecting a low-event match, given the H2H history. However, I do not expect Rayo to keep Sociedad from scoring, given Sociedad's improved form since last season.
Both teams recently played against teams of similar calibre in the league, Rayo against Betis, and Sociedad against Athletic Bilbao. The results and stats of both fixtures suggest that this match could play out the same way.
At home against Betis, Rayo conceded an own goal within the first 10 minutes and while equalising mid-way through the first half, conceded another goal before HT, which was Betis's only shot on target in 7 shots taken.
Sociedad played at home to Athletic Bilbao and took a two goal lead by 37 minutes before conceding one before HT.
The pre-match odds movement of that Sociedad-Athletic game were similar to this upcoming match between Rayo and Sociedad, with HT under 0.5 closing at 2.20 from a 2.50 open at bet365. The bookmakers had projected a low-event match as well, which was quickly blown out by both teams' performance.
Runs come to an end, and despite this H2H being historically low scoring, both teams' recent play against similar opponents leads me to expect at least a first half goal by Sociedad, with their strong defence able to keep Rayo at bay to lead at HT.
In team news, Rayo may make some changes to their starting lineup, with Oscar Trejo and Radamel Falcao both pushing to return for this match. It seems likely that Sergio Camello will again lead the attack, but Trejo could come in for Unai Lopez in potentially the only alteration from the side that started against Real Valladolid last time out.
As for Real Sociedad, key midfielder Martin Zubimendi will miss out through suspension, having been booked in the victory over Athletic in the league last time out. Asier Illarramendi could take Zubimendi's spot in central midfield, and there will be returns to the starting side for Takefusa Kubo, David Silva, Diego Rico and Igor Zubeldia following their Copa del Rey clash with Mallorca.
Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!):
a. Over 1.5
b. HT Over 0.5
2. Wolfsburg vs Freiburg
**Freiburg to win first half** @ 3.20
The Bundesliga resumes action with Freiburg able to close the gap to leaders Bayern Munich to just 2 points if they can win against Wolfsburg.
Both teams had good form prior to the World Cup: Wolfsburg (4-1-0 win/draw/lose,13-3 goals scored/conceded) and Freiburg (4-0-1, 11-4 goals scored /conceded).
The odds of the moneyline and over/under 2.5 markets suggest a close match should play out, with the goal total coming very close to 2.5.
As both teams have strong defensive form, I expect the HT goal total to fall under 1.5 but not under 0.5, due to last season's H2H where Freiburg led at half time home and away to Wolfsburg, and both sides' recent proven ability to get goals.
Provided this HT over 0.5 projection is correct, this opens up the opportunity to take either side of the HT moneyline at big odds.
Wolfsburg are expected to play without key attacking talisman Lukas Nmecha due to injury. Freiburg will have most if not all of their regular starters available for this one, particularly attackers Grifo (9 goals) and Gregoritsch (6 goals).
Given a close but not entirely goalless game, I am going with Freiburg as the side of the HT moneyline to score first and shut out their opponents in the first half.
Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!):
a. Under 2.5
3. Leicester vs Brighton
**Brighton to win first half** @ 2.50
This pick carries the expectation that Brighton's attack will continue their great form and get at least a goal, if not more, in the first 45 minutes against Leicester, who have been poor in attack and defense most of the season. The first-half match tempo should favour Brighton who play at a higher tempo than Leicester and are excellent in forcing turnovers, then quickly playing the ball into space for their wide forwards who have positioned themselves higher up the pitch to run on to.
Leicester may potentially have Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James Maddison, and Ayoze Perez back from injury, while another poor showing from Jamie Vardy previously, may see Patson Daka or Kelechi Iheanacho start.
Brighton are expected to retain the starting lineup that previously took the field against Liverpool, with only one enforced change, with Adam Webster replacing injured defender Levi Colwill.
Fyi, the market has also brought down the odds of Brighton -1.5 AH, but I am not confident enough about Brighton's defending over 90 minutes to back them on the handicap. Take this pick only if you are ok with the higher risk and confident Brighton can score enough to win by a big margin.
Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!):
a. BTTS-Yes
b. Brighton over 2.5 team goals
c. Over 3.5
4. Watford vs Rotherham
**Rotherham to win first half** @ 5.50
The Championship serves up chaos and drama year after year; see underdogs West Brom somehow winning at HT yesterday away to leaders Burnley who had defended reliably most of the season.
Constant underdogs Rotherham could also surprise in this match as they carry some momentum from a 4-0 pasting of play-off contenders Blackburn, where they scored within a minute of the kick-off and staved off 2 big Blackburn chances to lead the first half, before firing off a 3-goal salvo in the second half.
Watford's form has been steady without standing out, picking up 3 wins from their last 5 matches (2 losses), with only 5 goals scored and 6 goals conceded.
In contrast, Rotherham picked up only 4 points from their last 5 games, with their home win against Blackburn ending a 6-match winless run since they last won in November, 1-0 away to current runner-ups Sheffield United (D2 L4 before the Blackburn match).
Watford may switch to a 3-4-3 formation for this fixture with a new arrival, Matheus Martins, potentially earning a start in the final third. Another new arrival may also start: defender Joao Ferreira (ex-Benfica).
Barring any injury issues, Rotherham are expected to start with the same lineup from the win over Blackburn.
This pick is a risky one considering Rotherham's previous lack of goal-scoring form away from home and Watford's recent ability to keep first-half clean sheets and then score once or twice in the 2nd half to secure wins.
However, I think the tactical switch by Watford possibly disrupting their defensive stability and Rotherham's momentum from the Blackburn match could carry Rotherham to a HT lead in this match, with Watford making a comeback in the second half to either draw or win.
Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!):
a. BTTS-Yes
b. Ismalia Sarr to score or assist anytime
5. Bristol City vs Blackburn
**Bristol City to win first half** @ 2.70
Both teams go into this match in contrasting form.
Bristol City has gained 5 points from their most recent three matches in league play (W1 D2), while Blackburn have lost 2 of 3 of their last league matches (W1).
This pick is a fade of Blackburn's woeful recent form which includes their most recent 4-0 loss away to underdogs Rotherham, where Blackburn lost both halves and failed to score.
I expect Bristol to be the team with a higher level of confidence in the opening exchanges and they should be able to score in the first half while shutting out Blackburn for at least 45 minutes.
Bristol may stick with the side that won in extra time against Swansea previously, a starting lineup which has started their last two fixtures.
Forward Sam Bell may drop to the bench despite his winning goal against Swansea in midweek, while Andreas Weimann and Tommy Conway are still sidelined through injury.
Ben Brereton Diaz is expected to return to the Blackburn XI after missing the defeat at Rotherham.
The Chile international could feature on the left, allowing Sam Gallagher to play in the centre, but changes in tactics/personnel are likely after the manner of the defeat to Rotherham.
Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!):
a. Over 2.5
b. Bristol City to win
6. Derby vs Bolton
**HT Under 0.5** @ 2.75
Both teams look to cement their place in the League One play-offs, with Derby (4th) level on points with Bolton (5th) with a game in hand.
Both teams are in great goal-scoring and defensive form: Derby (W4-D1-L0, 12-2) and Bolton (W2-D3-L0, 7-1).
This pick projects that the match should initially be cagey, with both teams' strong defence cancelling out their recently prolific attack. Fyi, the reverse fixture last December finished 0-0 with both teams each taking only 3 shots in the first half.
Derby have no major injury worries at the moment, although centre-back James Chester is expected to be absent after missing the last two games due to a calf problem. Midfielder Eiran Cashin was taken off in their last game as a precaution, so it remains to be seen whether he will be fit enough to make the starting XI for this match.
Bolton's regular lineup is not affected by injury and they will count on Liverpool loanee Conor Bradley who has six goals and six assists this season, to get them at least a point if not three from this match.
Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!):
a. Under 2.5
b. BTTS-No
7. Salernitana vs Napoli
**HT Over 2.5** @ 4.30
This pick could and really should be the banker of the day besides a Brighton win, with league leaders Napoli travelling to Salernitana in scintillating form.
Napoli's most recent result was a 5-1 smashing of a (usually) defensively-sound Juventus, leading 2-1 at HT. Salernitana's most recent result was an 8-2 shellacking at Atalanta, with 6 goals scored in the first half alone.
Across three league games this year, Salernitana has faced the most shots of any Serie A side - 14 more than any other - and only the form of recently-arrived goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa has kept them from shipping even more goals.
Napoli have multiple goal threats who are firing and have scored the most goals during the first half of games this season (21), while Salernitana have conceded the most in the opening 45 minutes (19).
In team news, Napoli's Mario Rui may return at left-back, while loan signing Bartosz Bereszynski makes way for captain Giovanni Di Lorenzo on the right; up front, Victor Osimhen will displace Giovanni Simeone as Napoli's central striker.
While Matteo Politano is a minor doubt due to a calf problem, fellow winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia - now back from a bout of flu - is set to start as well. Kvaratskhelia is one of just three players to have registered at least seven goals and as many assists across the top five European leagues this term; Lionel Messi and Neymar are the others.
Salernitana, meanwhile, were able to rest and recover from their humbling defeat during the week, but have a longer injury list to deal with than their local rivals.
Though Dylan Bronn (thigh) might be passed fit to feature at some stage, Pasquale Mazzocchi (knee), midfielder Guilio Maggiore (thigh) and goalkeeper Luigi Sepe (calf) are all sidelined again.
It remains to be seen if Salernitana manager Nicola will shake things up substantially following his remarkable firing and re-hiring after the Atalanta loss, but Norbert Gyomber and Federico Bonazzoli have realistic hopes of promotion to the first XI, with Austrian defender Flavius Daniliuc returning from suspension and also a contender to start.
Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!):
a. HT Over 1.5
b. Over 3.5
c. Kvaratskhelia to score anytime
Wanna try to start the full Bundesliga slate with something over +100/2.00, feeling this for a modest parlay
✅ **Union Berlin win/draw double chance:** Union Berlin is unbeaten at home this year so let's expect that to continue tomorrow
✅ **Frankfurt moneyline:** 4th place at home against last place seems like a pretty manageable win
✅ **Bochum-Hertha o1.5:** o1.5 has hit in every Bochum home match this year and o2.5 hit in their last three home matches pre-WC.
Put it all together and you've got a modest +125/2.25 parlay. Feel free to pick Union moneyline and Bochum o2.5 to boost the odds if you're feeling braver than me!
Union moneyline and Bochum-Hertha o2.5 would've also hit if you were feeling more bold, nice start to the Bundesliga being back!
Bet Builder for Liverpool vs Chelsea, current record 5W-7L.
- Liverpool over 0.5 goals (every league and cup game at Anfield has resulted in Liverpool scoring at least once)
- Liverpool over 3 corners (every league and cup game at Anfield has resulted in Liverpool having 4 or more corners) ✅
- Chelsea over 0.5 cards (Chelsea have received a card in 10 out of 11 away games this season) ✅
- Chelsea over 8.5 free kicks (every league and cup away game for Chelsea has resulted in at least 9 free kicks) ✅
- Liverpool over 17.5 throw ins (9 out of 10 home games has resulted in Liverpool having 19+ throw ins) ✅
- Salah shot on target (10 out of 11 league and cup home games for Salah has resulted in at least 1 shot on target)
- Liverpool over 10.5 tackles (9 out of 10 home games as resulted in Liverpool having 12 or more tackles) ✅
- Overall returns on Bet365 are 9/5 or 2.8 + 25% bet builder boost + £1 free bet available. Good luck✅
If you don’t like what I do, then just skip past it. 👍 up in profit across the 12 bets I’ve posted, very unfortunate not to have higher win rate. Negativity from individuals like you won’t change what I do. Enjoy your Saturday. 😁
**Liverpool vs Chelsea | 13:30 GMT +2**
\--->Chelsea Over 2.5 [email protected] (Unibet)
Chelsea offsides: 3, 3, 2, 2, 3 | 3/5 Pl games since the break, has seen Chelsea offside at least 3 times.
Liverpool opposition offsides: 4, 7, 5, 3 | 4/4 Pl games for Liverpool has seen the opposition offside 3 or more times.
**Stake:** 3/5
**Bet Builder:**
* Liverpool Over 1.5 Cards
* Chelsea Over 1.5 Offsides
Liverpool with 3 or more card in 3/4 games in 2023. Injuries and just lacking anything at the moment, has forced Liverpool to commit a lot fouls recently.
Chelsea has been offside 2 or more times in 10/10 meetings in the Premier League.
**COMBINED**@2.63 (Unibet) | **Stake:** 2/5
\------------
**Southampton vs Aston Villa | 16:00 GMT +2**
\--->James Ward-Prowse Over 2.5 Shots@3 (Bet365)
James Ward-Prowse has been playing behind the striker as an attacking midfielder in Southampton's last 2 games. It looks like Nathan Jones wants to use the players great vision and shooting foot more.
Prowse made 5 shots against Everton. While Villa let Leeds shoot 16 times, in their last game. The host looks like they are maybe finding their feet a bit under Jones, with 3 wins in a row now. Especially their win over Manchester City, was impressive.
**Stake:** 2/5
**Bet Builder:**
* James Ward-Prowse Over 1.5 Shots
* Southampton Over 1.5 Offsides
James Word-Prowse as mentioned, has been moved further up field, so his chances of getting shooting opportunities is much higher.
*Aston Villa Offsides against:* 5, 5, 4, 1, 3, 3, 8, 3 | Under Emery, only Tottenham has not been offside 3 or more times.
**COMBINED**@3.10 (Unibet) | **Stake:** 4/5
\---------
**Leicester vs Brighton | 16:00 GMT +2**
\--->Solly March To Score@8 (Bet365)
??? That was very high odds for an super in-form player, against a team that has struggled a lot this season.
Scored in 3/5 games since the break...
**Stake:** 1.5/5
\----
**Coventry vs Norwich | 16:00 GMT +2**
**Bet Builder:**
* Coventry Over 19.5 Booking Points
* Norwich Over 19.5 Booking Points
*Norwich cards:* 4, 2, 2, 3, 1, 4, 5 | 6/7 since the break, has seen them with 2 or more cards. Overall this season, they averages 2.1 cards per game.
10 of Coventry's last 11 games, has seen them with 2 or more cards.
**COMBINED**@2.05 (Guts) | **Stake:** 3.5/5
Lul, managed to post in the wrong thread first...
The Leicester vs Brighton game feels like a trap. Brighton feels like such an obvious winner here, that they are bound to drop points.
Leicester has been so poor for a while now. Lost the derby against Nottingham last game. Outplayed by Newcastle in the FA Cup, the 2-0 scoreline is not representative of how outplayed they were.
They are not scoring goals... So my prediction is of course 2-2... Because that's how the Premier League works sometimes.
\-----------
HAHAHAHA The only thing I posted here and was right about, I didnæt put money on...🤦♂️
Newcastle over 4.5 Corners + Callum Wilson Over 0.5 Shots on [email protected] (Unibet)
Newcastle with 5 or more corners in their last 5 games or 14/19 PL games this season.
Callum Wilson with a shot on target, in both of the games he started since break.
Salernitana-Naples Away Win/Draw+over1,5 @1.23
Santa Clara-Benfica away win @1.28
Paços de Ferreira-Braga away win @1.46
Total acca: 2.3 (my booker odds are super low)
I dont even know why i didnt bet on Naples win and +2.5. they lost the last game so they are desqualified from the cup. They need to get back on track and salernitana is not a team for them to fear (16thplace). Salernitana has one point in the last 5 games and there were 21 goals in these games. They lost 8-2 to atalanta. Naples has 16 goals in the last 5.
Coming from a draw in the lisbon derby, Benfica got Gonçalo Guedes on a loan and theres a lot of hype around him. They also bought Andreas Schelderup and Casper Tengstedt that were in a good form in their league. This game is probably going to be a demonstration of power.
Braga is facing the last place of the portuguese league that got their first win in this season only last week and had some controversies with their coach. Braga is in a good form and need to keep that second place. Definitely cant loose points to last place
Ps:if you follow, please tell me the odds you get
BOL!
Of to a bad start for my career here with Leipzig - Bayern failing my rather safe bet yesterday WL 0-1
Today I’ve done one realistic and one fun bet. Again all matches were analysed by me and I might write up an explanation later today!
1st acca:
Sparta Rotterdam or draw @ 1.38 cambuur is absolutely horrible and sparta is in second best form of the eredivisie, only losing to psv and twente, both title contenders when they played them.
Grenoble to win @ 1.55 plabennec is almost last in national 2 while grenoble is picking up form in ligue 2 again after a series of losses.
Paris FC to win @1.74
Braga to win @1.40 -> best away team against worst home team.. what is this odd?
Total: 5.21 odds, riskier but imo very possibly
2nd acca:
Brighton to win @2.06
Toulouse to win @1.75
Luton to win @2.60
Total with a win boost 9.71 odds, for fun bet, but tbh not very unthinkable, lots of read ups elsewhere in the thread agreeing with these.
I also have one acca with all over 1.5 goals.
Waregem-westerlo
Union - Leuven
Leicester - brighton
Eintracht - schalke
Clara - benfica
Salernitana - napoli
Cambuur - sparta (I only selected over 0.5 goal here yesterday, dont know out of safety or missclick)
Total @2.98 odds
Good luck, tail whatever you want, pick & mix together for a safer or crazier option!
Will post my tips but be warned it’s like a curse, they never win when I post them on here!
English acca:
West Ham WIN vs Everton
Massive game here at the bottom of the Prem. West Ham have been very disappointing this season after spending a lot on some decent players. The arrival of Ings will boost the morale and I think it’ll be a narrow win, possibly the same score as last season, 2-1, a game which I was at.
Watford WIN vs Rotherham
Watford sit 3rd in the Championship despite a bit of a rollercoaster campaign. They face a Rotherham side who are high off the back of a 4-0 shock win at home to Blackburn. I think the superior quality of Watford will shine through, similar to last weeks win against Blackpool where they won 2-0, both goals coming towards the end of the game.
Barnsley WIN vs Accrington
League one promotion hopefuls Barnsley have faltered recently with 3 defeats on the trot, 8 goals conceded and 0 goals scored. Two of those games were against fellow play off sides, ( in which they got a man sent off in one of those two games ), and the other a 2-0 defeat to a revitalised Charlton. This is the perfect opportunity to bounce back and get the play off push back underway,,against 19th placed Accrington Stanley. Who are they?
Stevenage WIN vs Leyton Orient
2nd takes on 1st here at the top of L2. Stevenage are flying, including a 2-1 away win at Aston Villa in the FA cup. They face a Leyton Orient side here who are missing 2 first team defenders in Omar Beckles and Tom James, both suspended. I think with Leyton Orient missing those 2 players, in what would already of been a tight tough game, I think the balance swings just in the way of Stevenage, possibly a 1-0 on the cards here.
Each week I'm trying to find three good value picks and here are this weeks.
Wigan v Luton 2 @2.55
Colchester v Gillingham 1 @ 2.37
Walsall v Swindon 1 @void as postponed
Luton are having a great season and wigan are just awful tbh, also this exact fixture happened in the Cup and Luton were comfortable winners in the end so i expect a repeat
Gillingham are poor and don't look like turning things around whilst Colchester have recently had a good run of results and i think have more than enough to win this at home
Walsall is the riskiest of the three picks as Swindon are a good side but Walsall have been in great form since December and have performed well in the last few games so i think there's real value in those odds!
Good luck to everyone as always and have fun!
Edit: Walsall game is postponed so if people want another 3rd pick with Value i would say Derby @2.00 as they are in such good form and scoring for fun whilst at home (yes Bolton are also good but can see Derby winning this game) or Boreham Wood @1.8 as they are playing a Torquay that shouldn't be in the national league
Wouldn’t be so sure on Gillingham, their new owners have money and they’ve signed a few players from other league clubs in this window. They don’t concede many goals and just picked up a decent win against fellow strugglers Hartlepool. I think it’ll be a low scoring draw or even a 0-0.
Thanks for that, probably why the odds for the game show there's no clear favourite, i was really going of Colchesters form to see value there but with what you have said in mind maybe a draw @ 3.00 is a better option for some 👍
Although I agree Luton is more likely to win, comfortable winners is wrong they got a 97th minute winner. The two sides also played 2 weeks ago at Luton & that was 1-1.
When i was looking through form and that game i focused on the stats of possession, chances, attacks etc. for my 'comfortable win' but i do agree the scoreline does not look it haha!
It’s probably worth saying as a ST holder at Wigan they are absolute shite tho 😂 and only won 2 games at home all year & not led at the half once this season at home
My picks for today.
Lecce Away 2.39,
Union Berlin (<< edit/mixed home team name up) Home 2.33,
Mainz Away 3.00,
Werder Bremen Away 3.11,
Sparta Away 2.39,
Torino Away 3.87,
Waalwijk Home 2.47,
I blanket bet with fixed $$ and hope for 50%+ win rate 😁
Brighton to beat Leicester
Watford to beat Rotherham
Barnsley to beat Accrington
Plymouth to beat Cheltenham
Sheffield Wednesday to beat Fleetwood
Sutton to beat Crawley
£5 returns £108 on bet365
All ears for reasons why this won’t land (:
If you're looking for a reason, Sheff Wed and Fleetwood.
Sheff Wed home record is 8 Wins, 4 Draws, 1 loss
Fleetwood away is 4 Wins, 6 Ties, 3 Losses
Fleetwood and Sheffield played each other less than 5 games ago. Fleetwood's home record is worse than away, with 2/5/5. Sheff scored a 0.13 xGOT shot to save it from a tie. Fleetwood came out with a higher xG, and is the only team this season to do so without a tie or win.
Sheff Wed dnb might be a way to hedge bet
Nope none, Sparta will probably play a bit conservative since its an away game, it is mainly the current state of cambuur that made me go for this bet. A boring draw from 2 hesitant teams could be possible, but at least we have the DNB
Parlay @4.17
- Liverpool o0.5
- Nottingham o0.5
- Aston Villa o0.5
- Sevilla o0.5
- Kasimpasa o0.5
Parlay @4.63
- Leicester v **Brighton**
- Napoli to win + o1.5
- Fiorentina v Torino: o1.5
- Bornemouth v Nottingham: o1.5
BOL 🤞🏼
2 disallowed southampton goals and the only card in LEIBHA is for coach, pretty much ded. Well, I got RM18 New Year bonus right after I placed the bet, so this is for the match in the next hour.
**Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United @ 3.40**
Newcastle to win
Over 2.5 goals
Over 29.5 booking points
**FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen @ 3.00**
Over 2.5 goals
Over 9.5 corners
Hi folks, Mr. U2.5 here. Here are 13 fixtures that meet the HT U2.5 criteria. I haven't checked the total odds so will comment below once I do.
| League | Fixture | Market | Result |
| ------------------------ | ----------------------------- | ------- | ------ |
| England - Premier League | Leicester - Brighton | HT U2.5 | ✅ |
| England - Premier League | Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest | HT U2.5 | ✅ |
| England - Premier League | West Ham - Everton | HT U2.5 | ✅ |
| England - Premier League | Southampton - Aston Villa | HT U2.5 | ✅ |
| England - Premier League | Crystal Palace - Newcastle | HT U2.5 | |
| Italy - Serie A | Helas Verona Fc - Lecce | HT U2.5 | ✅ |
| Italy - Serie A | Torino - Fiorentina | HT U2.5 | |
| Spain - La Liga | Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad | HT U2.5 | ✅ |
| Spain - La Liga | Espanyol - Real Betis | HT U2.5 |✅ |
| Spain - La Liga | Atletico Madrid - Real Valladolid CF | HT U2.5 | |
| Spain - La Liga | Sevilla - Cadiz | HT U2.5 | |
| Netherlands - Eredivisie | Emmen - NEC Nijmegen | HT U2.5 | |
| Netherlands - Eredivisie | Cambuur Leeuwaarden - Sparta Rotterdam | HT U2.5 | |
**Post your bets and wins below. BOL!**
Dude persian golf pro league is your bread and butter if your bookie offers it. I would say include it in your parlay cuz more than 80 percent of games finish under 2.5 before half time.
Ah, you mean "gulf", I was a bit confused there 😁
Edit: 80% is actually not overly great, the turkey super league is 85% and we all know how crazy that can be. I'm trying to stick to the more competitive leagues for now.
Yeah gulf obv mb😆
I said 80 off the top of my head i don't know the exact percentage but its pretty pretty common just consider it and avoid gol gohar and sepahan.
* Israel Premier League
Maccabi Bnei Raina - Beitar Jerusalem - BTTS Yes @1.80
Maccabi has failed to score in each of their last 5 home games, while Beitar have scored in all of their last 5 away games. I feel like it’s about time Maccabi scored atleast one goal, even though they’re one of the worst teams in the league.
Hapoel Hadera - SC Ashdod - 1X @1.66
Hapoel are a home team, compared to Ashdod who are absolutely dreadful away from home this season. Out of their 9 games at home, they’ve only lost one to league leaders Maccabi Haifa(0-6), who to be fair, have also beaten Juventus in the UEFA Champions League. I’m surprised there’s such good odds for a Double Chance but I’ll take happily, hell, I can see Hapoel winning this one.
* Switzerland Premier League
Luzern - Zurich - X2 @1.80
With the Swiss league restarting today, last season’s champions are dead last in the standings with a worrying form. I’m purely going with my hunch here, I believe this is where the turn around starts for Zurich.
Honestly I can see it, after all it’s Israel and who knows what’s happening behind the scenes. Bookies are usually attentive of this stuff. Logically I believe my bet adds up though.
* Score Singles Total: **19-27-2** (41.30%)
* Score Singles Yesterday: **2-1-0** (66.7%)
* Units Won/Lost on Singles (total // yesterday): **-21.27u** // +3.9u
* Score Parlays: **3-11** (21.43%)
* Units Won/Lost on Parlays (total // yesterday): **+0.53u** // -1u
* Total Units Won/Lost (total // yesterday): **-20.74u** // +2.9u
Our parlay streak of 3 in a row is over, but we had a good day picking individual bets. We were one goal away from a perfect day, but considering how it was going previously, we'll take 2 out of 3. Today, no excuses, we're going for 3/3 100% guaranteed no-risk. /s
**SINGLE PICKS**
**#1** 1. Lig/Turkey - **Genclerbirligi v Boluspor** | 14:00 CET
Genclerbirligi are bottom of the league and just not good, so it's very likely that they'll allow Boluspor to get the 3 points, and at least to get one goal or more. I'm not confident enough to bet on the win here as Genclerbirligi has proven somewhat more competent in some of there most recent fixtures, despite losing them, and Boluspor are 14th (6th worst) away from home. Not to mention that Genclerbirligi actually beat Boluspor earlier this season. Considering that Genclerbirligi have managed to create enough chances and score goals in 5 of their last 7 league fixtures, I'm betting that they'll manage to score one here today as well.
* Prediction: **BTTS Y + O2.5** @ 2.30 (3u)
* Result: **WIN**
**#2** Bundesliga/Germany - **Union Berlin v Hoffenheim** | 15:30 CET
Union Berlin are 5th, Hoffenheim are 11th and had lost 4 out of their last 5 before the break. Union Berlin have not lost at home this season, grabbing 17 out of 21 points in their home stadium. With the team they got, I'm trusting them to put away Hoffenheim here today. Considering Hoffenheim have scored in all but one away game, and that Union Berlin have conceded in 5 of their 7 home fixtures, I'm going to risk it a bit more here, but I feel like Union Berlin ML have really good odds as well.
* Prediction: **Union Berlin win + BTTS Y** | 4.90 (2.5u)
* Result: **WIN**
**#3** Premier League/England - **Leicester City v Brighton** | 16:00 CET
Good odds on Brighton to win against Leicester City who have lost four straight. Brighton are the 5th best away team in the league, while Leicester are the third worst at home. Brighton beat Leicester 5-2 at home earlier in the year. A win will be important for Brighton for their EL ambitions, and I predict they'll get the three points here.
* Prediction: **Brighton ML** | 1.85 (2.5u)
* Result: **LOSS**
**DAILY PARLAY | LOSS**
* Southampton v Aston Villa **BTTS Y** @ 1.87 | **L**
* Union Berlin v Hoffenheim **1** **ML** @ 2.30 | **W**
* Frankfurt v Schalke **1 ML @** 1.40 | **W**
= 1u to win 5.02u
If you decide to tail, BOL to the both of us :)
Just put in 40 for this since its Chinese New Year anyways.
**LEI vs BHA @ 2.90** ❌
Over 2.5 goals ✔️
Under 12.5 corners ✔️
Over 29.5 booking points ❌
**WAT vs RTU @ 3.30** ✔️
Under 2.5 goals ✔️
Under 12.5 corners ✔️
Over 29.5 booking points ✔️
**SOU vs AVL @ 3.40** ❌
Over 2.5 goals ❌
Under 11.5 corners ✔️
Over 29.5 booking points ✔️
3 x 10 doubles
1 x 10 treble
Potential return 611.88 from 40. BOL
Sadly the easiest part of our parlay yesterday got postponed so we missed out on a free 2.55 multiplier but it is what it is. Even though I'm certain yesterday's parlay was hitting, I'm not going to count it for the W/L nor average odds just to be fair. Parlay W/L 3-0 Average Odds - 3.38 Yesterday's picks: RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich - Over 0.5 goals HT for Bayern @ 1.66 ✅ Eupen vs Genk - 2 @ 1.53 ⌛ 2.55 Combined odds ⌛ Genk game postponed Today's picks : Crystal Palace vs Newcastle - 2 @ 2.10 ❌ Leicester vs Brighton - 2 @ 2.05 ❌ Combined Odds - 4.30 ❌ [If you like the tips let me know by buying me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/egotips) When we hit 10 supporters, I will make a group where I will be posting all of my personal plays, unit (bankroll) management and live picks with insane value :) Got some really nice things planned in the future so Bonam fortunam!
Brighton win @ 2.05 offers insane value to double ur money. Quickly buy before odds drop.
they never won them at home
Man my 4-fold parlay @ x30 odds was dependent on a brighton 1X2 win, this sucks big time especially since the other 3 bets had much higher odds than this :(
In with Brighton and Newcastle
Tailing. Nice find. Brighton are flying at the moment
lol dont bet on mid table premier league teams who are in good form. in general i dont like to bet on epl but small/mid table teams is a no no for me
Leicester/Brighton: Parlay Brighton win or tie, over 0.5 total goals at the half, Brighton over 3.5 corners. +125
Hello all. These are my picks today. BOL! |No.|Fixture|Selection|Odds|Result| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |1.|Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad|Real Sociedad to win first half|3.20|✅| |2.|Wolfsburg vs Freiburg|Freiburg to win first half|3.20|❌| |3.|Leicester vs Brighton|Brighton to win first half|2.50|❌| |4.|Watford vs Rotherham|Rotherham to win first half|5.50|✅| |5.|Bristol City vs Blackburn|Bristol City to win first half|2.70|❌| |6.|Derby vs Bolton|HT Under 0.5|2.75|❌| |7.|Salernitana vs Napoli|HT Over 2.5|4.30|| # Pre-match Analysis 1. Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad **Real Sociedad to win first half** @ 3.20 Real Sociedad come into this match with eight straight wins in all competitions. Sociedad (W4-D1-L0, 10-3 goals scored/conceded) have been in better form than Rayo (W2-D2-L1, 7-6). The odds of the HT moneyline and goal total markets seem to be projecting a low-event match, given the H2H history. However, I do not expect Rayo to keep Sociedad from scoring, given Sociedad's improved form since last season. Both teams recently played against teams of similar calibre in the league, Rayo against Betis, and Sociedad against Athletic Bilbao. The results and stats of both fixtures suggest that this match could play out the same way. At home against Betis, Rayo conceded an own goal within the first 10 minutes and while equalising mid-way through the first half, conceded another goal before HT, which was Betis's only shot on target in 7 shots taken. Sociedad played at home to Athletic Bilbao and took a two goal lead by 37 minutes before conceding one before HT. The pre-match odds movement of that Sociedad-Athletic game were similar to this upcoming match between Rayo and Sociedad, with HT under 0.5 closing at 2.20 from a 2.50 open at bet365. The bookmakers had projected a low-event match as well, which was quickly blown out by both teams' performance. Runs come to an end, and despite this H2H being historically low scoring, both teams' recent play against similar opponents leads me to expect at least a first half goal by Sociedad, with their strong defence able to keep Rayo at bay to lead at HT. In team news, Rayo may make some changes to their starting lineup, with Oscar Trejo and Radamel Falcao both pushing to return for this match. It seems likely that Sergio Camello will again lead the attack, but Trejo could come in for Unai Lopez in potentially the only alteration from the side that started against Real Valladolid last time out. As for Real Sociedad, key midfielder Martin Zubimendi will miss out through suspension, having been booked in the victory over Athletic in the league last time out. Asier Illarramendi could take Zubimendi's spot in central midfield, and there will be returns to the starting side for Takefusa Kubo, David Silva, Diego Rico and Igor Zubeldia following their Copa del Rey clash with Mallorca. Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!): a. Over 1.5 b. HT Over 0.5 2. Wolfsburg vs Freiburg **Freiburg to win first half** @ 3.20 The Bundesliga resumes action with Freiburg able to close the gap to leaders Bayern Munich to just 2 points if they can win against Wolfsburg. Both teams had good form prior to the World Cup: Wolfsburg (4-1-0 win/draw/lose,13-3 goals scored/conceded) and Freiburg (4-0-1, 11-4 goals scored /conceded). The odds of the moneyline and over/under 2.5 markets suggest a close match should play out, with the goal total coming very close to 2.5. As both teams have strong defensive form, I expect the HT goal total to fall under 1.5 but not under 0.5, due to last season's H2H where Freiburg led at half time home and away to Wolfsburg, and both sides' recent proven ability to get goals. Provided this HT over 0.5 projection is correct, this opens up the opportunity to take either side of the HT moneyline at big odds. Wolfsburg are expected to play without key attacking talisman Lukas Nmecha due to injury. Freiburg will have most if not all of their regular starters available for this one, particularly attackers Grifo (9 goals) and Gregoritsch (6 goals). Given a close but not entirely goalless game, I am going with Freiburg as the side of the HT moneyline to score first and shut out their opponents in the first half. Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!): a. Under 2.5 3. Leicester vs Brighton **Brighton to win first half** @ 2.50 This pick carries the expectation that Brighton's attack will continue their great form and get at least a goal, if not more, in the first 45 minutes against Leicester, who have been poor in attack and defense most of the season. The first-half match tempo should favour Brighton who play at a higher tempo than Leicester and are excellent in forcing turnovers, then quickly playing the ball into space for their wide forwards who have positioned themselves higher up the pitch to run on to. Leicester may potentially have Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James Maddison, and Ayoze Perez back from injury, while another poor showing from Jamie Vardy previously, may see Patson Daka or Kelechi Iheanacho start. Brighton are expected to retain the starting lineup that previously took the field against Liverpool, with only one enforced change, with Adam Webster replacing injured defender Levi Colwill. Fyi, the market has also brought down the odds of Brighton -1.5 AH, but I am not confident enough about Brighton's defending over 90 minutes to back them on the handicap. Take this pick only if you are ok with the higher risk and confident Brighton can score enough to win by a big margin. Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!): a. BTTS-Yes b. Brighton over 2.5 team goals c. Over 3.5 4. Watford vs Rotherham **Rotherham to win first half** @ 5.50 The Championship serves up chaos and drama year after year; see underdogs West Brom somehow winning at HT yesterday away to leaders Burnley who had defended reliably most of the season. Constant underdogs Rotherham could also surprise in this match as they carry some momentum from a 4-0 pasting of play-off contenders Blackburn, where they scored within a minute of the kick-off and staved off 2 big Blackburn chances to lead the first half, before firing off a 3-goal salvo in the second half. Watford's form has been steady without standing out, picking up 3 wins from their last 5 matches (2 losses), with only 5 goals scored and 6 goals conceded. In contrast, Rotherham picked up only 4 points from their last 5 games, with their home win against Blackburn ending a 6-match winless run since they last won in November, 1-0 away to current runner-ups Sheffield United (D2 L4 before the Blackburn match). Watford may switch to a 3-4-3 formation for this fixture with a new arrival, Matheus Martins, potentially earning a start in the final third. Another new arrival may also start: defender Joao Ferreira (ex-Benfica). Barring any injury issues, Rotherham are expected to start with the same lineup from the win over Blackburn. This pick is a risky one considering Rotherham's previous lack of goal-scoring form away from home and Watford's recent ability to keep first-half clean sheets and then score once or twice in the 2nd half to secure wins. However, I think the tactical switch by Watford possibly disrupting their defensive stability and Rotherham's momentum from the Blackburn match could carry Rotherham to a HT lead in this match, with Watford making a comeback in the second half to either draw or win. Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!): a. BTTS-Yes b. Ismalia Sarr to score or assist anytime 5. Bristol City vs Blackburn **Bristol City to win first half** @ 2.70 Both teams go into this match in contrasting form. Bristol City has gained 5 points from their most recent three matches in league play (W1 D2), while Blackburn have lost 2 of 3 of their last league matches (W1). This pick is a fade of Blackburn's woeful recent form which includes their most recent 4-0 loss away to underdogs Rotherham, where Blackburn lost both halves and failed to score. I expect Bristol to be the team with a higher level of confidence in the opening exchanges and they should be able to score in the first half while shutting out Blackburn for at least 45 minutes. Bristol may stick with the side that won in extra time against Swansea previously, a starting lineup which has started their last two fixtures. Forward Sam Bell may drop to the bench despite his winning goal against Swansea in midweek, while Andreas Weimann and Tommy Conway are still sidelined through injury. Ben Brereton Diaz is expected to return to the Blackburn XI after missing the defeat at Rotherham. The Chile international could feature on the left, allowing Sam Gallagher to play in the centre, but changes in tactics/personnel are likely after the manner of the defeat to Rotherham. Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!): a. Over 2.5 b. Bristol City to win
Currently out in my Bristol City scarf, heading to the ground soon .. Hope we’re both very happy at ft!
Awesome, have a good time!
6. Derby vs Bolton **HT Under 0.5** @ 2.75 Both teams look to cement their place in the League One play-offs, with Derby (4th) level on points with Bolton (5th) with a game in hand. Both teams are in great goal-scoring and defensive form: Derby (W4-D1-L0, 12-2) and Bolton (W2-D3-L0, 7-1). This pick projects that the match should initially be cagey, with both teams' strong defence cancelling out their recently prolific attack. Fyi, the reverse fixture last December finished 0-0 with both teams each taking only 3 shots in the first half. Derby have no major injury worries at the moment, although centre-back James Chester is expected to be absent after missing the last two games due to a calf problem. Midfielder Eiran Cashin was taken off in their last game as a precaution, so it remains to be seen whether he will be fit enough to make the starting XI for this match. Bolton's regular lineup is not affected by injury and they will count on Liverpool loanee Conor Bradley who has six goals and six assists this season, to get them at least a point if not three from this match. Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!): a. Under 2.5 b. BTTS-No 7. Salernitana vs Napoli **HT Over 2.5** @ 4.30 This pick could and really should be the banker of the day besides a Brighton win, with league leaders Napoli travelling to Salernitana in scintillating form. Napoli's most recent result was a 5-1 smashing of a (usually) defensively-sound Juventus, leading 2-1 at HT. Salernitana's most recent result was an 8-2 shellacking at Atalanta, with 6 goals scored in the first half alone. Across three league games this year, Salernitana has faced the most shots of any Serie A side - 14 more than any other - and only the form of recently-arrived goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa has kept them from shipping even more goals. Napoli have multiple goal threats who are firing and have scored the most goals during the first half of games this season (21), while Salernitana have conceded the most in the opening 45 minutes (19). In team news, Napoli's Mario Rui may return at left-back, while loan signing Bartosz Bereszynski makes way for captain Giovanni Di Lorenzo on the right; up front, Victor Osimhen will displace Giovanni Simeone as Napoli's central striker. While Matteo Politano is a minor doubt due to a calf problem, fellow winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia - now back from a bout of flu - is set to start as well. Kvaratskhelia is one of just three players to have registered at least seven goals and as many assists across the top five European leagues this term; Lionel Messi and Neymar are the others. Salernitana, meanwhile, were able to rest and recover from their humbling defeat during the week, but have a longer injury list to deal with than their local rivals. Though Dylan Bronn (thigh) might be passed fit to feature at some stage, Pasquale Mazzocchi (knee), midfielder Guilio Maggiore (thigh) and goalkeeper Luigi Sepe (calf) are all sidelined again. It remains to be seen if Salernitana manager Nicola will shake things up substantially following his remarkable firing and re-hiring after the Atalanta loss, but Norbert Gyomber and Federico Bonazzoli have realistic hopes of promotion to the first XI, with Austrian defender Flavius Daniliuc returning from suspension and also a contender to start. Suggested alternative bets in ascending order of risk (stake responsibly!): a. HT Over 1.5 b. Over 3.5 c. Kvaratskhelia to score anytime
Kvara is ill, he is not playing
tailing and good luck to us
Amazing call on Rotherham mate. I didn’t think you were going to be close. Shows what I know. 😂
Wolfsburg has 2 goals already…
Wanna try to start the full Bundesliga slate with something over +100/2.00, feeling this for a modest parlay ✅ **Union Berlin win/draw double chance:** Union Berlin is unbeaten at home this year so let's expect that to continue tomorrow ✅ **Frankfurt moneyline:** 4th place at home against last place seems like a pretty manageable win ✅ **Bochum-Hertha o1.5:** o1.5 has hit in every Bochum home match this year and o2.5 hit in their last three home matches pre-WC. Put it all together and you've got a modest +125/2.25 parlay. Feel free to pick Union moneyline and Bochum o2.5 to boost the odds if you're feeling braver than me! Union moneyline and Bochum-Hertha o2.5 would've also hit if you were feeling more bold, nice start to the Bundesliga being back!
Im with you on this one, lets see
We've got a winner!
Good job!
Bet Builder for Liverpool vs Chelsea, current record 5W-7L. - Liverpool over 0.5 goals (every league and cup game at Anfield has resulted in Liverpool scoring at least once) - Liverpool over 3 corners (every league and cup game at Anfield has resulted in Liverpool having 4 or more corners) ✅ - Chelsea over 0.5 cards (Chelsea have received a card in 10 out of 11 away games this season) ✅ - Chelsea over 8.5 free kicks (every league and cup away game for Chelsea has resulted in at least 9 free kicks) ✅ - Liverpool over 17.5 throw ins (9 out of 10 home games has resulted in Liverpool having 19+ throw ins) ✅ - Salah shot on target (10 out of 11 league and cup home games for Salah has resulted in at least 1 shot on target) - Liverpool over 10.5 tackles (9 out of 10 home games as resulted in Liverpool having 12 or more tackles) ✅ - Overall returns on Bet365 are 9/5 or 2.8 + 25% bet builder boost + £1 free bet available. Good luck✅
[удалено]
I have no idea what you just said, but okay 👍
[удалено]
If you don’t like what I do, then just skip past it. 👍 up in profit across the 12 bets I’ve posted, very unfortunate not to have higher win rate. Negativity from individuals like you won’t change what I do. Enjoy your Saturday. 😁
**Bankroll : + 16,67 units** Leicester vs Brighton: Brighton Win @ 2,05 🔴 **Total : 2,05 - 1 unit** Leicester vs Brighton : Over 2,0 goals @ 1,40 🟢 Bournemouth vs Nottingham : Over 1,5 goal @ 1,41 🟢 **Total : 1,98 - 1 unit** 🟢 Southampton vs Everton : Over 2,0 goals @ 1,53 🔴 Crystal Palace vs Newcastle : Newcastle DNB @ 1,40 🟡 **Total : 2,15 - 1 unit** Wolfsburg vs Freiburg : Over 2,0 goals @ 1,44 🟢 Bochum vs Hertha : Over 2,0 goals @ 1,42 🟢 **Total : 2,06 - 1 unit** 🟢 Best of luck to everyone !
Southampton vs Everton?
Was looking at this as a solid for under 2.5
**Liverpool vs Chelsea | 13:30 GMT +2** \--->Chelsea Over 2.5 [email protected] (Unibet) Chelsea offsides: 3, 3, 2, 2, 3 | 3/5 Pl games since the break, has seen Chelsea offside at least 3 times. Liverpool opposition offsides: 4, 7, 5, 3 | 4/4 Pl games for Liverpool has seen the opposition offside 3 or more times. **Stake:** 3/5 **Bet Builder:** * Liverpool Over 1.5 Cards * Chelsea Over 1.5 Offsides Liverpool with 3 or more card in 3/4 games in 2023. Injuries and just lacking anything at the moment, has forced Liverpool to commit a lot fouls recently. Chelsea has been offside 2 or more times in 10/10 meetings in the Premier League. **COMBINED**@2.63 (Unibet) | **Stake:** 2/5 \------------ **Southampton vs Aston Villa | 16:00 GMT +2** \--->James Ward-Prowse Over 2.5 Shots@3 (Bet365) James Ward-Prowse has been playing behind the striker as an attacking midfielder in Southampton's last 2 games. It looks like Nathan Jones wants to use the players great vision and shooting foot more. Prowse made 5 shots against Everton. While Villa let Leeds shoot 16 times, in their last game. The host looks like they are maybe finding their feet a bit under Jones, with 3 wins in a row now. Especially their win over Manchester City, was impressive. **Stake:** 2/5 **Bet Builder:** * James Ward-Prowse Over 1.5 Shots * Southampton Over 1.5 Offsides James Word-Prowse as mentioned, has been moved further up field, so his chances of getting shooting opportunities is much higher. *Aston Villa Offsides against:* 5, 5, 4, 1, 3, 3, 8, 3 | Under Emery, only Tottenham has not been offside 3 or more times. **COMBINED**@3.10 (Unibet) | **Stake:** 4/5 \--------- **Leicester vs Brighton | 16:00 GMT +2** \--->Solly March To Score@8 (Bet365) ??? That was very high odds for an super in-form player, against a team that has struggled a lot this season. Scored in 3/5 games since the break... **Stake:** 1.5/5 \---- **Coventry vs Norwich | 16:00 GMT +2** **Bet Builder:** * Coventry Over 19.5 Booking Points * Norwich Over 19.5 Booking Points *Norwich cards:* 4, 2, 2, 3, 1, 4, 5 | 6/7 since the break, has seen them with 2 or more cards. Overall this season, they averages 2.1 cards per game. 10 of Coventry's last 11 games, has seen them with 2 or more cards. **COMBINED**@2.05 (Guts) | **Stake:** 3.5/5
Lul, managed to post in the wrong thread first... The Leicester vs Brighton game feels like a trap. Brighton feels like such an obvious winner here, that they are bound to drop points. Leicester has been so poor for a while now. Lost the derby against Nottingham last game. Outplayed by Newcastle in the FA Cup, the 2-0 scoreline is not representative of how outplayed they were. They are not scoring goals... So my prediction is of course 2-2... Because that's how the Premier League works sometimes. \----------- HAHAHAHA The only thing I posted here and was right about, I didnæt put money on...🤦♂️ Newcastle over 4.5 Corners + Callum Wilson Over 0.5 Shots on [email protected] (Unibet) Newcastle with 5 or more corners in their last 5 games or 14/19 PL games this season. Callum Wilson with a shot on target, in both of the games he started since break.
Salernitana-Naples Away Win/Draw+over1,5 @1.23 Santa Clara-Benfica away win @1.28 Paços de Ferreira-Braga away win @1.46 Total acca: 2.3 (my booker odds are super low) I dont even know why i didnt bet on Naples win and +2.5. they lost the last game so they are desqualified from the cup. They need to get back on track and salernitana is not a team for them to fear (16thplace). Salernitana has one point in the last 5 games and there were 21 goals in these games. They lost 8-2 to atalanta. Naples has 16 goals in the last 5. Coming from a draw in the lisbon derby, Benfica got Gonçalo Guedes on a loan and theres a lot of hype around him. They also bought Andreas Schelderup and Casper Tengstedt that were in a good form in their league. This game is probably going to be a demonstration of power. Braga is facing the last place of the portuguese league that got their first win in this season only last week and had some controversies with their coach. Braga is in a good form and need to keep that second place. Definitely cant loose points to last place Ps:if you follow, please tell me the odds you get BOL!
Of to a bad start for my career here with Leipzig - Bayern failing my rather safe bet yesterday WL 0-1 Today I’ve done one realistic and one fun bet. Again all matches were analysed by me and I might write up an explanation later today! 1st acca: Sparta Rotterdam or draw @ 1.38 cambuur is absolutely horrible and sparta is in second best form of the eredivisie, only losing to psv and twente, both title contenders when they played them. Grenoble to win @ 1.55 plabennec is almost last in national 2 while grenoble is picking up form in ligue 2 again after a series of losses. Paris FC to win @1.74 Braga to win @1.40 -> best away team against worst home team.. what is this odd? Total: 5.21 odds, riskier but imo very possibly 2nd acca: Brighton to win @2.06 Toulouse to win @1.75 Luton to win @2.60 Total with a win boost 9.71 odds, for fun bet, but tbh not very unthinkable, lots of read ups elsewhere in the thread agreeing with these. I also have one acca with all over 1.5 goals. Waregem-westerlo Union - Leuven Leicester - brighton Eintracht - schalke Clara - benfica Salernitana - napoli Cambuur - sparta (I only selected over 0.5 goal here yesterday, dont know out of safety or missclick) Total @2.98 odds Good luck, tail whatever you want, pick & mix together for a safer or crazier option!
rotterdamn pick, fantastic
Happy to hear you tailed boys, was a mad odd for win or draw considering the form, am just happy my first acca and the over 1.5 acca are both hitting
Thanks for the rotterdam one 👍🏻✌🏼 I bet on victory with other smaller bets in an acca ..it paid out. The quote for rotterdam was a gift haha
- Brighton @**1.90** - Aston Villa DNB @**1.83** - Rangers @**1.36** Treble @ **4.76**
Will post my tips but be warned it’s like a curse, they never win when I post them on here! English acca: West Ham WIN vs Everton Massive game here at the bottom of the Prem. West Ham have been very disappointing this season after spending a lot on some decent players. The arrival of Ings will boost the morale and I think it’ll be a narrow win, possibly the same score as last season, 2-1, a game which I was at. Watford WIN vs Rotherham Watford sit 3rd in the Championship despite a bit of a rollercoaster campaign. They face a Rotherham side who are high off the back of a 4-0 shock win at home to Blackburn. I think the superior quality of Watford will shine through, similar to last weeks win against Blackpool where they won 2-0, both goals coming towards the end of the game. Barnsley WIN vs Accrington League one promotion hopefuls Barnsley have faltered recently with 3 defeats on the trot, 8 goals conceded and 0 goals scored. Two of those games were against fellow play off sides, ( in which they got a man sent off in one of those two games ), and the other a 2-0 defeat to a revitalised Charlton. This is the perfect opportunity to bounce back and get the play off push back underway,,against 19th placed Accrington Stanley. Who are they? Stevenage WIN vs Leyton Orient 2nd takes on 1st here at the top of L2. Stevenage are flying, including a 2-1 away win at Aston Villa in the FA cup. They face a Leyton Orient side here who are missing 2 first team defenders in Omar Beckles and Tom James, both suspended. I think with Leyton Orient missing those 2 players, in what would already of been a tight tough game, I think the balance swings just in the way of Stevenage, possibly a 1-0 on the cards here.
Each week I'm trying to find three good value picks and here are this weeks. Wigan v Luton 2 @2.55 Colchester v Gillingham 1 @ 2.37 Walsall v Swindon 1 @void as postponed Luton are having a great season and wigan are just awful tbh, also this exact fixture happened in the Cup and Luton were comfortable winners in the end so i expect a repeat Gillingham are poor and don't look like turning things around whilst Colchester have recently had a good run of results and i think have more than enough to win this at home Walsall is the riskiest of the three picks as Swindon are a good side but Walsall have been in great form since December and have performed well in the last few games so i think there's real value in those odds! Good luck to everyone as always and have fun! Edit: Walsall game is postponed so if people want another 3rd pick with Value i would say Derby @2.00 as they are in such good form and scoring for fun whilst at home (yes Bolton are also good but can see Derby winning this game) or Boreham Wood @1.8 as they are playing a Torquay that shouldn't be in the national league
Wouldn’t be so sure on Gillingham, their new owners have money and they’ve signed a few players from other league clubs in this window. They don’t concede many goals and just picked up a decent win against fellow strugglers Hartlepool. I think it’ll be a low scoring draw or even a 0-0.
Thanks for that, probably why the odds for the game show there's no clear favourite, i was really going of Colchesters form to see value there but with what you have said in mind maybe a draw @ 3.00 is a better option for some 👍
Although I agree Luton is more likely to win, comfortable winners is wrong they got a 97th minute winner. The two sides also played 2 weeks ago at Luton & that was 1-1.
When i was looking through form and that game i focused on the stats of possession, chances, attacks etc. for my 'comfortable win' but i do agree the scoreline does not look it haha!
It’s probably worth saying as a ST holder at Wigan they are absolute shite tho 😂 and only won 2 games at home all year & not led at the half once this season at home
My picks for today. Lecce Away 2.39, Union Berlin (<< edit/mixed home team name up) Home 2.33, Mainz Away 3.00, Werder Bremen Away 3.11, Sparta Away 2.39, Torino Away 3.87, Waalwijk Home 2.47, I blanket bet with fixed $$ and hope for 50%+ win rate 😁
Union Berlin Hoffenheim / Union WIN & BTTS @ 5.00 ✅ U.S Gilloise vs O.Heverlee / U.S Win @ 1.50 ✅ Nice hit with the WIN and BTTS + U.S Amazing day..
Crystal Palace under goals <0.5 FT @ 2.38. Newcastle have allowed the least goals in the league
Palace creates chances out of nowhere. Especially in big games. Clean sheet's a risky bet.
Last couple gqmes for crystal palace has been good, they just have problems getting the ball in the net.. feel this will go as a draw..
You can’t tell me that zaha won’t score today
So Newcastle clean sheet?
I think so.
Brighton to beat Leicester Watford to beat Rotherham Barnsley to beat Accrington Plymouth to beat Cheltenham Sheffield Wednesday to beat Fleetwood Sutton to beat Crawley £5 returns £108 on bet365 All ears for reasons why this won’t land (:
One of these fuckers will draw and screw it all up
Hahahaha you just know it
If you're looking for a reason, Sheff Wed and Fleetwood. Sheff Wed home record is 8 Wins, 4 Draws, 1 loss Fleetwood away is 4 Wins, 6 Ties, 3 Losses Fleetwood and Sheffield played each other less than 5 games ago. Fleetwood's home record is worse than away, with 2/5/5. Sheff scored a 0.13 xGOT shot to save it from a tie. Fleetwood came out with a higher xG, and is the only team this season to do so without a tie or win. Sheff Wed dnb might be a way to hedge bet
>Fleetwood sheff wednesday you mean?
Yes, my bad, should be fixed now
:)
Going for a a double of Cambuur v SPARTA dnb at 1.68 and Salernitana v NAPOLI with handicap 1-0 at 1.82 combining for 3.06
Tailing Cambuur vs Sparta, looking like a good pick (knock on wood). A little curious about the high odds though, any injuries or such?
Nope none, Sparta will probably play a bit conservative since its an away game, it is mainly the current state of cambuur that made me go for this bet. A boring draw from 2 hesitant teams could be possible, but at least we have the DNB
Great pick man, thanks!
Yea today was a good day!
Parlay: Union Berlin - Hoffenheim --> BTTS (@1.74) ✅ Wigan - Luton --> Luton (@2.46) ✅ Leicester - Brighton --> Brighton (@1.89) ❌ (Fuck Brighton) Single: Hellas Verona - Lecce --> Lecce(@3.35) ❌
Germany / Bundesliga VfL Wolfsburg - SC Freiburg over1.5 @ 1.29 Switzerland / Super League Grasshopper - Young Boys over2.5 @ 1.53 acca @ 1.97
Parlay @4.17 - Liverpool o0.5 - Nottingham o0.5 - Aston Villa o0.5 - Sevilla o0.5 - Kasimpasa o0.5 Parlay @4.63 - Leicester v **Brighton** - Napoli to win + o1.5 - Fiorentina v Torino: o1.5 - Bornemouth v Nottingham: o1.5 BOL 🤞🏼
Atlético Madrid to win 1-0 @4.8 Porto to win 1-2 @7.5 GLHF
2 disallowed southampton goals and the only card in LEIBHA is for coach, pretty much ded. Well, I got RM18 New Year bonus right after I placed the bet, so this is for the match in the next hour. **Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United @ 3.40** Newcastle to win Over 2.5 goals Over 29.5 booking points **FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen @ 3.00** Over 2.5 goals Over 9.5 corners
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Lotta people make lotta advance bets. Don’t think it’s too early.
21 is full of matches, so no.
Probs in australia
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We are close
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Well done 👍
tailing😎
Hi folks, Mr. U2.5 here. Here are 13 fixtures that meet the HT U2.5 criteria. I haven't checked the total odds so will comment below once I do. | League | Fixture | Market | Result | | ------------------------ | ----------------------------- | ------- | ------ | | England - Premier League | Leicester - Brighton | HT U2.5 | ✅ | | England - Premier League | Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest | HT U2.5 | ✅ | | England - Premier League | West Ham - Everton | HT U2.5 | ✅ | | England - Premier League | Southampton - Aston Villa | HT U2.5 | ✅ | | England - Premier League | Crystal Palace - Newcastle | HT U2.5 | | | Italy - Serie A | Helas Verona Fc - Lecce | HT U2.5 | ✅ | | Italy - Serie A | Torino - Fiorentina | HT U2.5 | | | Spain - La Liga | Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad | HT U2.5 | ✅ | | Spain - La Liga | Espanyol - Real Betis | HT U2.5 |✅ | | Spain - La Liga | Atletico Madrid - Real Valladolid CF | HT U2.5 | | | Spain - La Liga | Sevilla - Cadiz | HT U2.5 | | | Netherlands - Eredivisie | Emmen - NEC Nijmegen | HT U2.5 | | | Netherlands - Eredivisie | Cambuur Leeuwaarden - Sparta Rotterdam | HT U2.5 | | **Post your bets and wins below. BOL!**
Total odds are around @2.41. I'm going to place one small bet on them all, then another bet on the first 11 which is getting me @2 odds. BOL everyone!
Dude persian golf pro league is your bread and butter if your bookie offers it. I would say include it in your parlay cuz more than 80 percent of games finish under 2.5 before half time.
Ah, you mean "gulf", I was a bit confused there 😁 Edit: 80% is actually not overly great, the turkey super league is 85% and we all know how crazy that can be. I'm trying to stick to the more competitive leagues for now.
Yeah gulf obv mb😆 I said 80 off the top of my head i don't know the exact percentage but its pretty pretty common just consider it and avoid gol gohar and sepahan.
Yea it's not showing up in most bookies I'm afraid so I won't bother include. Thanks anyway. You thinking of betting u2.5 today?
* Israel Premier League Maccabi Bnei Raina - Beitar Jerusalem - BTTS Yes @1.80 Maccabi has failed to score in each of their last 5 home games, while Beitar have scored in all of their last 5 away games. I feel like it’s about time Maccabi scored atleast one goal, even though they’re one of the worst teams in the league. Hapoel Hadera - SC Ashdod - 1X @1.66 Hapoel are a home team, compared to Ashdod who are absolutely dreadful away from home this season. Out of their 9 games at home, they’ve only lost one to league leaders Maccabi Haifa(0-6), who to be fair, have also beaten Juventus in the UEFA Champions League. I’m surprised there’s such good odds for a Double Chance but I’ll take happily, hell, I can see Hapoel winning this one. * Switzerland Premier League Luzern - Zurich - X2 @1.80 With the Swiss league restarting today, last season’s champions are dead last in the standings with a worrying form. I’m purely going with my hunch here, I believe this is where the turn around starts for Zurich.
Surely something's up with that Hapoel fixture. My bookie has 1X @ 1.91
Honestly I can see it, after all it’s Israel and who knows what’s happening behind the scenes. Bookies are usually attentive of this stuff. Logically I believe my bet adds up though.
Guys this weekend I'm playing over 1.5FT all my favorites
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🏴 Leicester v Brighton ~ bet builder 2 and o1.5 match goals @ 6/4
Record: 26 Wins 14 Losses 11:30 Perth Glory - Melbourne Victory Melbourne +0.0 AH @ 1.70 ❌ 14:30 Union Berlin - Hoffenheim Union Berlin + 0.0 AH & 1.70 ✅ 15:00 Wigan - Luton Luton +0.0 AH @ 1.82 ✅ 17:30 Granada - Ibiza Granada -0.5AH @ 1.61 ✅ 20:30 Guimaraes - Porto Guimaraes +1.5 AH @ 1.85 ✅
Not seen many talk about it, but Real Sociedad seems to be in real good form. DNB @ 1.72 seems like great value. Any reason people are ignoring this?
Because rayo at home are scary af and last game for sociedad struggled for that 1-0 at home
Union berlin Brighton Barnsley Watford Newcastle crystal palace btts Nottingham +0.5 Napoli
Everton or draw odds at 1/1 on Bet365 , seems good to me
Betfair running a promo on Liverpool game but max stake is £10 - Salah to have 1 or more shots on target @evens Edit - William Hill offering the same
* Score Singles Total: **19-27-2** (41.30%) * Score Singles Yesterday: **2-1-0** (66.7%) * Units Won/Lost on Singles (total // yesterday): **-21.27u** // +3.9u * Score Parlays: **3-11** (21.43%) * Units Won/Lost on Parlays (total // yesterday): **+0.53u** // -1u * Total Units Won/Lost (total // yesterday): **-20.74u** // +2.9u Our parlay streak of 3 in a row is over, but we had a good day picking individual bets. We were one goal away from a perfect day, but considering how it was going previously, we'll take 2 out of 3. Today, no excuses, we're going for 3/3 100% guaranteed no-risk. /s **SINGLE PICKS** **#1** 1. Lig/Turkey - **Genclerbirligi v Boluspor** | 14:00 CET Genclerbirligi are bottom of the league and just not good, so it's very likely that they'll allow Boluspor to get the 3 points, and at least to get one goal or more. I'm not confident enough to bet on the win here as Genclerbirligi has proven somewhat more competent in some of there most recent fixtures, despite losing them, and Boluspor are 14th (6th worst) away from home. Not to mention that Genclerbirligi actually beat Boluspor earlier this season. Considering that Genclerbirligi have managed to create enough chances and score goals in 5 of their last 7 league fixtures, I'm betting that they'll manage to score one here today as well. * Prediction: **BTTS Y + O2.5** @ 2.30 (3u) * Result: **WIN** **#2** Bundesliga/Germany - **Union Berlin v Hoffenheim** | 15:30 CET Union Berlin are 5th, Hoffenheim are 11th and had lost 4 out of their last 5 before the break. Union Berlin have not lost at home this season, grabbing 17 out of 21 points in their home stadium. With the team they got, I'm trusting them to put away Hoffenheim here today. Considering Hoffenheim have scored in all but one away game, and that Union Berlin have conceded in 5 of their 7 home fixtures, I'm going to risk it a bit more here, but I feel like Union Berlin ML have really good odds as well. * Prediction: **Union Berlin win + BTTS Y** | 4.90 (2.5u) * Result: **WIN** **#3** Premier League/England - **Leicester City v Brighton** | 16:00 CET Good odds on Brighton to win against Leicester City who have lost four straight. Brighton are the 5th best away team in the league, while Leicester are the third worst at home. Brighton beat Leicester 5-2 at home earlier in the year. A win will be important for Brighton for their EL ambitions, and I predict they'll get the three points here. * Prediction: **Brighton ML** | 1.85 (2.5u) * Result: **LOSS** **DAILY PARLAY | LOSS** * Southampton v Aston Villa **BTTS Y** @ 1.87 | **L** * Union Berlin v Hoffenheim **1** **ML** @ 2.30 | **W** * Frankfurt v Schalke **1 ML @** 1.40 | **W** = 1u to win 5.02u If you decide to tail, BOL to the both of us :)
Just put in 40 for this since its Chinese New Year anyways. **LEI vs BHA @ 2.90** ❌ Over 2.5 goals ✔️ Under 12.5 corners ✔️ Over 29.5 booking points ❌ **WAT vs RTU @ 3.30** ✔️ Under 2.5 goals ✔️ Under 12.5 corners ✔️ Over 29.5 booking points ✔️ **SOU vs AVL @ 3.40** ❌ Over 2.5 goals ❌ Under 11.5 corners ✔️ Over 29.5 booking points ✔️ 3 x 10 doubles 1 x 10 treble Potential return 611.88 from 40. BOL
If a bet is voided like Walsall v Swindon what happens to the other bets in the acca. Ladbrokes.
FUCK LIVERPOOL