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Chaosobelisk

**My record: 178 Wins and 143 losses and average odds of 1.98** Sucks that we came one goal short of hitting the bet yesterday! Today's pick: **Cienciano v Alianza Atlético** Peru Primera Division *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.40** **BOL!** **[Buy me a coffee!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/chaosobelisk)** **[Tips are appreciated!](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)**


KOKO69BISHES

Hey, mind me asking how'd you gather that this has a good chance?


Chaosobelisk

It has a decent probability from the model and that's why the odds are also a bit higher. The away team has scored a good amount of goals in their away games and also conceded frequently. The home team has not conceded a lot of goals so the home team conceding/away team scoring will be the most difficult challenge to this pick I think. Not a lot of choice for tomorrow so I had to go for Peru but I still think this game has a decent chance to hit BTTS & Over 2.5.


Devilzutd

Easy first half cash


Chaosobelisk

Yeah, ended up a goal fest in the first half already.


BlupHox

well done bro this match gone crazy


Chaosobelisk

Thanks, 5-2 was definitely unexpected.


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Low_Technician_63

Well damn :(


[deleted]

I dont understand why that kind of saying many thing but stand on none post always get top voted in this sub. Everything the man said is 1 click away and what they predict is what everyone think will happen. Every time.


MHT-

Hi all. These are my picks today. BOL! ​ |No.|Fixture|Selection|Odds|Result| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |1.|Daejeon vs Suwon FC|Over 2.5|1.60|✅| |2.|Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk|Under 2.5|1.67|❌| |3.|Jeju vs Incheon|Incheon +1.5 AH|1.20|❌| |4.|Urawa Reds vs Sagan Tosu|Sagan Tosu +0.75 AH|1.92|✅| |5.|AC Milan vs Inter|Inter to win|2.35|✅| |6.|FC Cincinnati vs New York City|FC Cincinnati to win|2.00|✅| |7.|Nashville SC vs FC Dallas|Nashville SC to win|1.90|✅| |8.|Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake|Portland Timbers to win first half|2.40|❌|


mark1nhu

**Money Line + AH** * We are positive with a **+3.5u profit** in 4 days of betting ([5/2](https://www.reddit.com/r/SoccerBetting/comments/1350fkh/comment/jiip34e/), [5/3](https://www.reddit.com/r/SoccerBetting/comments/1360o4r/comment/jimsr2g/), [5/4](https://www.reddit.com/r/SoccerBetting/comments/136zsnu/comment/jisaklb/), [5/5](https://www.reddit.com/r/SoccerBetting/comments/1381bns/comment/jiyey51/)). * Record is **16W vs. 16L**, with an **average odd of winning bets above 2.00**, which makes it possible to be positive with a **minimum win rate of 50%** (being totally expected to have some reds down the road). * It's still a reasonably well-oiled machine learning model that have been doing me some nice profit for a while. * 5/5 was particularly bad, so I'm tweaking criteria in the model to be as strict as possible, as opposed to loosen criteria used in that day. * Finally: didn't bet the last 3 days due to poor connection while traveling, but I want to bet and share tips for the remaining days in May, so the model goes under public scrutiny. Here we go: |Match|Market + Line|Odd| |:-|:-|:-| |Cruzeiro v Fluminense|AH 0.0 - Cruzeiro|2.05| |Cuiabá v Atlético Mineiro|ML - Atlético Mineiro|2.25| |Bragantino v América Mineiro|AH +0.5 - América Mineiro|1.95| |Santos v Bahia|AH 0.0 - Bahia|2.30| ​ **Under/Over** Not sharing tips for this market anymore. I want to focus on refining the ML/AH model.


OutrageousQuality0

As a Brasilero fan cruzeiro play against great Flu with 50-60k crazy supporters but dont let the table fool u Flu will not lose this game,the second game Atletico is in a mess now the players didnt even get salary so its risky,bragantinho will win against terrible america ,the last game i agree with ur model i see both team scoring but bahia is superior atm


mark1nhu

My model doesn't try to act like Nostradamus in the sense of assuring who is going to win or lose. That's not how I bet and I strongly recommend everyone against it. It does value betting: calculates probabilities through several factors (team strength, expected goals, home advantage, must win factor, etc) and then **compare** those probabilities to the ones calculated by bookmakers, recommending those probabilities that **apparently (!)** have been underestimated by them. Cruzeiro AH 0.0 bet doesn't mean Cruzeiro is going to win. Cruzeiro AH 0.0 bet means that my model thinks the chance of Cruzeiro not losing this game (winning or drawing) is considerably higher than 48% (2.05 odd). In fact, it believes to be at least 53% (1.88 odd), which also aligns with the market movement caused by crowd wisdom: it opened at 2.15 and then dropped to 1.97 due to bettors flocking to it. (edit: it's already @ 1.88 with 4:30 left to the match but it should bounce around the fair odd up until the kickoff). Does that mean Fluminense will lose to Cruzeiro? LOL, **I have no idea** and I can even believe the opposite that I would still bet on the line my model believe is mispriced by the bookmaker, because that's the essence of long term value betting. Same goes for the other matches, except for the Bragantino one, where the odd didn't drop as my model expected. **Not coincidentally, Bragantino match is the only one Bet365 doesn't offer me cashout, because it's the one I don't have an edge over them. They know I have the pre-match edge on the others and so they offer me to cashout and have some minor profit just because they would rather not wait the match outcome (which could favor them anyway).** PS: I decided to write this BEFORE the matches happen because I will believe in every single word I typed even if all four bets turns out red. Betting is a long term endeavor, some days with losses are just business as usual.


vidactiva

Great explanation. Everyone should read this Btw, cruzeiro is tottaly gonna loose this game


mark1nhu

>Btw, cruzeiro is tottaly gonna loose this game That's my personal opinion as well hahahaha But last time I disagreed with the value model I saw Bahia (as visitors) beating Vasco da Gama @ 4.33 🤬


vidactiva

Hahahaha i will place a bet in cruzeiro winning then, its a sign


mark1nhu

BTW, this is the value odd analysis a few hours before I took the bet (yesterday): [https://i.imgur.com/0vRtw0g.png](https://i.imgur.com/0vRtw0g.png) As we all can see, Bet365 applied a HUGE edge to all of Fluminense odds, exactly due to their supposed favoritism. This means they're not paying the fair reward for the outcomes, similar to paying 1.72 to a coin toss (which is 50/50 probability, 2.00 fair odd). On the other hand, it is underestimating Cruzeiro chances and overpaying to their outcomes. That's where "value betting" comes in and allow us to profit in the long term, similar to getting paid 2.38 to a coin toss (which is 50/50 probability, 2.00 fair odd). I would signup to whoever offered me to toss a coin, every single day, for the rest of our lives, if this was the odd to my outcome. In the long term I would make more money than lose. Of course, when I say that Bet365 is not paying the fair reward for Fluminense outcomes and overpaying Cruzeiro's ones, I say that considering MY WAY to calculate probabilities, which of course could be the wrong one. But that's exactly the challenge: to build a model that hits the target more times than it misses WHEN disagreeing from the bookmaker model (there is no point betting when they agree). Finally, bookmakers misprice probabilities A LOT OF TIMES, you believe it or not.


OutrageousQuality0

I don't disagree with you at all its your system,but if you compare them in football terms Flu can beat Cruz 8 /10 but the fans can help cruz the terrible pitch can help them as well but they will miss Bilu and most importantly Richard (suspended by betting scam lol ) so my easy money is Flu to win. Just to show you my knowledge I do tell you my bets and we compare after FT. Flu AH 0.0 Cuiba to score a goal Braganthino to win santo bahia BTTS


mark1nhu

You say Flu wins 8 of 10 (80%), clearly ignoring draws, based on just feelings due to an amazing form streak since the Carioca, which compounds to a mere dozen matches. I say it’s way more balanced (around 40%) based on mathematics of **hundreds** of matches between two opponents with an identical profile. **But that’s pointless anyway because the next match outcome says absolutely nothing about both of our analysis.** You can be right on the 80% but have the bad luck of this evening being the 20% time. Same goes for me, on the opposite. And same goes for a streak of 8 consecutive tails in a coin toss. Probability continues to be 50/50 in the infinity, even if somehow 80% of the latest 10 deviated from that. **This is called variance.** Last but not least, not even Bet365 believes Fluminense would win 8 out of 10, and you can check it by yourself by calculating the offered odds. PS: this is not a competition and by no means I want to “win” you over an argument, reason why I couldn’t care less about the outcomes of both our bets from tonight. I only care about finding potential mistakes from Bet365 to accumulate units and profit in the long term, even if I only hit the target 50% of the time.


mark1nhu

**RESULTS** |Match|Market + Line|Odd|Result| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Cruzeiro v Fluminense|AH 0.0 - Cruzeiro|2.05|❌| |Cuiabá v Atlético Mineiro|ML - Atlético Mineiro|2.25|✅| |Bragantino v América Mineiro|AH +0.5 - América Mineiro|1.95|✅| |Santos v Bahia|AH 0.0 - Bahia|2.30|❌| **PROFIT +0.2u**


x3godTsuna

**Hello,** Milan vs. Inter | Bet: Milan to win @ 3.10 L **Good Luck ✌️**


Ottawack1

Leao is doubtful


stogie_t

I think inter are gonna win. Their strikers are on good form but it’s risky, Maignan is incredible.


Gullible_Macaron_949

I see what you did there


vanquishercarl

Good luck ✌️


Personal_Patient_145

Even both halves ht/ft @5.6, thats my bet anyways combined with the 15 corners from real-city game which was @7.8 lol


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Personal_Patient_145

Yep lol


Active-Pop8922

what does ht/ft mean?


Dr_Chocolate_2436

Half Time result/Full time result.


Active-Pop8922

how does this work? you have to win both halfs?


Kroko997

Team X Ht/FT means Team X win the first Half and win the Game ✌🏽


Tyler020

You mean either team to win? Lol jk


BLinsdell

Record 57W-92L Managed a 2/1 (3.0) winner in Tuesday’s thread, let’s hope for back to back winners. 👍 AC Milan vs Inter Milan bet builder 🇮🇹 - Martinez shot on target ❌ - Dimarco shot - Over 24.5 free kicks in the match - Tonali over 1.5 tackles - Odds are 21/10 or 3.1 on Bet365 - Lautaro Martinez has had a shot on target in all 3 starts against AC Milan this season. He averages a shot on target every 57.8 minutes in Serie A and UCL this season. - Dimarco has had a shot in 24 of his last 25 starts. - There has been 25+ free kicks in the last 7 meetings between the 2 sides. - Tonali has had 2 or more tackles in 11 of his last 13 starts. [Tips are appreciated!](https://paypal.me/bmlinsdell)


RodneyYaBilsh

Going for 1 Tonali tackle and 1 Theo Hernandez tackle, works out the same, BOL


BLinsdell

Definitely a good shout👍


Substantial_Act438

Waiting for you boss


BLinsdell

Posted 👍


Beemanirl

Over 3.5 Match Total Cards Olivier Giroud Player At Least 1 Shots On Target Lautaro Martinez Player At Least 1 Shots On Target Romelu Lukaku Player At Least 1 Shots On Target Inter Milan Team With Most Corners


lMadeforpvpl

Suwon Bluewings - Jeonbuk [2] @ 2.15 Ac Milan - Inter Milan [BTTs]@ 1.97 Chengdu Rongcheng - Shandong Taishan [2] @ 2.50 Ararat-Armenia - Alashkert [1] @ 1.95


Futuretiztic

Shangdong have 1 win in 13 if that lands you’re a true genius tho the odds are fairly even so you must know something


lMadeforpvpl

They are just a better team. Same with Jeonbuk. GL


Futuretiztic

Was a close game in the end! Didn’t realise it was Fellaini’s team!


[deleted]

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l0lz69

**Record 0-0** First time posting my pick here, which would be: *K League 1* \--> Daejon Citizen vs Suwon FC \[2\] @ 3.25 ❌ Medium confidence with high hope here, BOL


Mestics

any particular reason why? thanks


therealsteinfeld

YESTERDAY‘S PICKS: 1W / 1L / + 0.50 units / amazing performance by Alaba and he really did get that one shot needed to win the bet :) FULL STATS: 105W @ 2.21 avg (40%) / 156 @ 2.91 avg (60%) ROI SINCE APRIL 26: - 12.52 units TODAY‘S PICKS: AC Milan vs Inter: o 4.5 total corners / o 3.5 total cards / u 3.5 total goals / Lautaro Martinez o 0.5 total SOT @ 2.20 CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotive Sofia: CSKA ML / o 1.5 total goals @ 1.86 As always, tail at your own risk and let me know if you do. Good luck everyone!


AddictedToAbortions

**US Orléans vs Le Mans**❌ Pick 1: **HT/FT 1-X @14** Pick 2: **HT/FT 2-X @14** **Milan vs Inter** ❌ Pick 1: **HT/FT 1-X @14.5** Pick 2: **HT/FT 2-X @14.5** I’m playing either team to win halftime, then draw full time. Both these games are likely to be low scoring games with draw as a realistic result. I like the odds and i’m placing a $5 bet on every pick. I’m no expert and only share for fun. Please use own judgement and follow at your own risk.


[deleted]

0W2L yesterday! But we go again! BOL! Just 1 for tmr ***UCL*** Milan vs Inter | BTTS, No @ **1.75** ✅


[deleted]

AC Vs Inter GU 2.5 @0.58 or 1.58 😁 This is a very sensible bet in my opinion cause both team will turtle after 1st goal, conceded team will play even more tight. Still a risky bet with just 0.58. AC Vs Inter 😒 X @2.056 or 3.05 I believe the chance for one of them winning or draw is the same chance but draw odds much nicer. °Safe parley Inter 2X + TU 3.5 @0.65 😁 I am very confident on this but aint gonna bet my house or my kidneys on it. Edit : Changed parley 1x team to Inter. Last picks : https://www.reddit.com/r/SoccerBetting/comments/13c33cq/daily_picks_thread_tuesday_9th_may_2023/jje2v0g/


X_Underscore_X

**Urawa Reds vs Sagan Tosu | 12:30 GMT +2** \--->[email protected] (Unibet) The Asian Champions is back in league action and needs to do some catch up. They take on Sagan Tosu who are only above the relegation zone due to scoring more goals than the teams below them. The have had a tough run of games of late, so expecting them to pick up more points going forward. Will be interesting to see how Urawa Reds does it in their first game back, maybe a bit hungover still? The Reds have only played 3 home games so far, and all of them have ended with a home win and both teams scoring. Sagan Tosu have also scored in 10 of the last 12 league meetings. **Stake:** 2.5/5 ❌❌❌


testx217

(Bets: 9, won: 4, lost: 5, --> Profit: -0.75u ROI: -8.4%) Milan - Inter -> Both teams to score & Over 2.5 Goals @2.75


odourjedjis

Trying again, 2+ SOT each team in each half @9.00 Dzeko giroud 1+ SOT each @3.00 Mkhitaryan 3+ fouls @11.00 Skybet BOL


flipmessi2005

Record: 15-33 POTD Record: 6-5 POTD: Inter Milan vs AC Milan draw +210. Or if you’re more risky then under .5 goals +650. The recent meetings between the teams have been so volatile in either teams favor that I’m not quite convinced in either team winning, so I’ll safely chose a draw. Lautaro Martinez First player to score +500. I was thinking of just taking his +220 for anytime goal scorer, but since there won’t be too many goals in the game he could very well be the first and only scorer. He’s bagged three out of his last 4 games against AC Milan.


carl__11

Northern Ireland / Premiership Cliftonville - Coleraine over1.5 @ 1.25 Europe / Champions League Milan - Inter under2.5 @ 1.57 acca @ 1.96


YGWYD

OVERALL RECORD: 8-12 1/2 picks won yesterday, unlucky but we move Yesterday's Picks: •  Real Madrid vs Manchester City - BTTS Yes @ 1.60 ✅️ • Ittihad Alexandria VS Sekka Al Hadid - Double Chance 12❌️ Today's Picks: • AC Milan vs Inter Milan - Lautaro Martinez over 0.5 shots on target @ 1.40 • International vs Athletico PR - International Handicap 1+ @ 1.35 TOTAL ODDS: 1.89


Simple-Leader6501

78 wins and 114 losses Bets for Milan game AC Milan 5 shots or more on target @2.65 AC Milan double chance and O1.5 goals @2.29 (believe it will end 1-1) Brahim Diaz scores or assists @3.25 BOL👋