This is what the new National Assembly looks like:
https://preview.redd.it/xlojpf4ef9bd1.png?width=1207&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4829338b590d83fc1859bbf72e976cb38e92ce06
The Prime Minister doesn't need to be approved by a vote of confidence in the Assembly - neither Borne nor Attal ever called one - they just need to be able to survive a motion of no-confidence to form and hold a government.
Since both NFP and Ensemble have, for the moment, excluded a coalition government with the other, it probably means a confidence-and-supply scheme similar to the (undeclared) one that was in effect between Ensemble and LR between 2022 and 2024. Which means, for either NFP or Ensemble, giving enough guarantees to the other side that letting them spare their government is a preferrable alternative to joining their votes to RN to topple them through a motion.
NFP itself has deep rifts between LFI and PS, coincidentally the two biggest groups in the coalition, meaning that any left-wing PM can't be from either one of them if they want to preserve the balance. If they decide to nominate a politician as a PM candidate, it will probably be someone from the Green Party. Marine Tondelier has greatly increased her visibility during the campaign and has demonstrated her ability to negotiate with different parties: the NFP negotiations took place at the Green Party's HQ, and she has a good working relationship with Xavier Bertrand, one of the figures of LR who staunchly rejected the alliance with RN. Which is why I think she will be the candidate.
Looking at Le monde, the numbers there are completely different from your graph
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/07/2024-french-election-results-chart-and-map-of-second-round-winners_6676976_8.html
NFP 182 (+4)
Ensemble 168 (+18)
LR 46 (-20)
RN 143 (-1)
The one I posted uses the Interior Ministry's classification, as they appear on official results
There are a few MPs who didn't want to wear the NFP/Ensemble label on official paperwork by tactical or personal choice - like Jérôme Guedj, who refused the NFP endorsement because of antisemitic attacks against him from LFI but will still sit with NFP. And independent MPs (labelled as Gauche/Centre/Droite) who will caucus with a larger party after the new Assembly is established. Some of the regionalist, dissident and Overseas MPs also established an independent group called LIOT in 2022-2024 that looked for ad hoc bills without being tied to a bigger bloc
The discrepancy between Libération and Le Monde's graph on LR may be the inclusion of UDI (center-right) and a few regionalist MPs who caucus with LR but are counted separately (DVD on the graph I posted)
We will see some evolutions as MPs make decisions on where they will sit and which group they join, but the current balance won't change much
How far left are the French Greens? Or I guess the more pertinent question is how anti-democratic/pro-Russian are they, relative to Melenchon and his ilk?
Because if they're on the saner end of the spectrum then it would seem like the dream scenario here is a left wing government that can cobble together enough support from the ~100 member Green + Socialist bloc of NFP as well as the Macronist center in order to govern.
Or is there some kind of agreement within the NFP electoral alliance binding them to try and form a government with LFI first?
They fully support Ukraine, voted for Finland and Sweden's NATO membership and back continued sanctions on Russia. Supporting Ukraine is part of the NFP's common platform and was a non-negotiable demand of Glucksmann's Place Publique to enter the coalition.
In terms of democratic norms, they abide by classic parliamentary politics, have participated to previous governments under Hollande, and govern a few big cities (Strasbourg, Poitiers, Bordeaux, Marseille, Paris) in coalition with PS, either as senior or junior partners. They also have one of the best performing parties in terms of internal democracy, with regular elections, different movements and a high tolerance for dissent, unlike LFI's vertical organization around Mélenchon and his close circle of allies.
Economically, they're close to LFI and are staunchly anti-nuclear energy, but in terms of respect for democratic norms, they're on the sane side of the spectrum.
There's no consensus among NFP on a PM name yet, LFI keeps pushing for one of their own but won't be able to survive a motion of no-confidence if they do. Either they compromize and accept a name from another party, or there's no government for at least a year.
We'll see what LFI prefer, but they've already lost 5 MPs (Corbière, Ruffin, Autain, Davi, Simonnet) who defected/were purged to other left-wing groups because of their inflexibility, seeing other defections isn't excluded if they keep their sectarian streak.
I honestly have no idea how they're going to reach an agreement. I think Tondelier would be one of the better choices. But I expect them to avoid party leaders to convince Mélenchon to stand down.
The coalition itself is weird. Officially, it's against nuclear but I know the Communist Party is pro-nuclear. The Greens are anti-nuclear. Honestly, the Communists seem to be the better party in the coalition which I never thought I'd ever say about a Communist Party
> The Greens are anti-nuclear.
*Sigh.* MANY SUCH CASES!
(Although actually I'm surprised to hear this is the case in France, of all places, which is very strongly on the pro-nuclear side of the green debate within Europe and has a ton of power plants compared to everyone else.)
Greens and being idiotic on nuclear energy is the norm at this point. Lenin and Stalin can rise from hell, declare nuclear as something good, went to heaven because of their support for nuclear, and they would still spite at them.
Their website says, "This project will aim for strong growth in electricity production, by investing in renewable energies (solar, wind and especially in hydraulics, controllable renewable energy) and in nuclear electricity with the construction of at least six additional EPRs."
[https://www-pcf-fr.translate.goog/objectif\_4?\_x\_tr\_sl=fr&\_x\_tr\_tl=en&\_x\_tr\_hl=en&\_x\_tr\_pto=wapp](https://www-pcf-fr.translate.goog/objectif_4?_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
That’s why I said “in the style of China.” The Chinese communist party would tell you that they are continuing the work of Marx, Lenin, and Mao by pursuing their own vision of socialist work- socialism with Chinese characteristics, as they would say. I won’t get into the debate about whether or not this is what they are actually doing, but it’s what they themselves claim and appear to believe.
Anyway that’s all not really the point. I was just curious about whether the French communist party aligns itself to the Chinese communist party.
The French Communist Party isn't actually Communist anymore. Hasn't been since Robert Hue in the 90s. Despite only getting 2.5% of the votes the last few times they ran, they're still (and by far) the party with the most *adhérents*, or subscribers with a party card.
They're economically very left (tax on the wealthy, strong social security net, favorable to public spending), but also pro-cop (although on that the leadership and the membres don't necessarily alignement), very, very quite on racism, pro-nuclear and industry. One of the reason they have survived is that they're still very strong on a local level thanks to a clear ideology built on a hundred year of experiences, and most left wing coalitions include them. When you vote for them for a mayorship, you know that means strong public services, free school meals, lots of various associations (sports, cultural, free to use utilities).
LFI on the other hand is very strong at the national level, thanks to very well recognized figureheads (especially Mélenchon who is extremely popular in poor suburbs with lots of children or grandchildren of immigrants), but has no big city, no real local présence.
Sounds like a shitshow in the making to be honest. Like i get that strategically voting to prevent the far right from taking over, but if there's no plan or ability to compromise, it's just gonna end up kicking the can down the road.
I'm looking at the parties that form this coalition and there's honestly no way this is going to work out in the long run.
Honestly it shouldn't.
That's the end result of a big tente, centrist party : when you've taken everything over, you either create a Utopia in (in this case) 3 years, or you make whatever is left out the only viable alternative. An alliance that would go from LFI (or even only PS) to Horizons is a death sentence for the country.
There won't be a coalition. At this point I'm betting on lots of posturing and a minimal budget while everyone gets ready for a new dissolution in one year time.
If anyone is going to blow up the coalition and allow the far-right to coast into power, either through arrogance or incompetence, it's for sure going to be Melenchon.
It's a coalition that has a Communist party and an economically liberal party that increased the retirement age. It's a coalition held together with wet toilet paper.
My money is on Tondelier since she's liked both by all parties in the NFP and by Macron himself, who knows what Melenchon's ambitions will cause though...
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-Socialist Party politician
-Experience in government
-High name recognition
are you guys thinking what i'm thinking
https://preview.redd.it/hf9bp2rd5fbd1.png?width=440&format=png&auto=webp&s=017d7a45aa04cc9b51f59054317f34bd9c92eb49
This is what the new National Assembly looks like: https://preview.redd.it/xlojpf4ef9bd1.png?width=1207&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4829338b590d83fc1859bbf72e976cb38e92ce06 The Prime Minister doesn't need to be approved by a vote of confidence in the Assembly - neither Borne nor Attal ever called one - they just need to be able to survive a motion of no-confidence to form and hold a government. Since both NFP and Ensemble have, for the moment, excluded a coalition government with the other, it probably means a confidence-and-supply scheme similar to the (undeclared) one that was in effect between Ensemble and LR between 2022 and 2024. Which means, for either NFP or Ensemble, giving enough guarantees to the other side that letting them spare their government is a preferrable alternative to joining their votes to RN to topple them through a motion. NFP itself has deep rifts between LFI and PS, coincidentally the two biggest groups in the coalition, meaning that any left-wing PM can't be from either one of them if they want to preserve the balance. If they decide to nominate a politician as a PM candidate, it will probably be someone from the Green Party. Marine Tondelier has greatly increased her visibility during the campaign and has demonstrated her ability to negotiate with different parties: the NFP negotiations took place at the Green Party's HQ, and she has a good working relationship with Xavier Bertrand, one of the figures of LR who staunchly rejected the alliance with RN. Which is why I think she will be the candidate.
Looking at Le monde, the numbers there are completely different from your graph https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/07/2024-french-election-results-chart-and-map-of-second-round-winners_6676976_8.html NFP 182 (+4) Ensemble 168 (+18) LR 46 (-20) RN 143 (-1)
The one I posted uses the Interior Ministry's classification, as they appear on official results There are a few MPs who didn't want to wear the NFP/Ensemble label on official paperwork by tactical or personal choice - like Jérôme Guedj, who refused the NFP endorsement because of antisemitic attacks against him from LFI but will still sit with NFP. And independent MPs (labelled as Gauche/Centre/Droite) who will caucus with a larger party after the new Assembly is established. Some of the regionalist, dissident and Overseas MPs also established an independent group called LIOT in 2022-2024 that looked for ad hoc bills without being tied to a bigger bloc The discrepancy between Libération and Le Monde's graph on LR may be the inclusion of UDI (center-right) and a few regionalist MPs who caucus with LR but are counted separately (DVD on the graph I posted) We will see some evolutions as MPs make decisions on where they will sit and which group they join, but the current balance won't change much
>Marine Tondelier Another French politician in their thirties. Why cannot we have that in the US? 😭😭😭
How far left are the French Greens? Or I guess the more pertinent question is how anti-democratic/pro-Russian are they, relative to Melenchon and his ilk? Because if they're on the saner end of the spectrum then it would seem like the dream scenario here is a left wing government that can cobble together enough support from the ~100 member Green + Socialist bloc of NFP as well as the Macronist center in order to govern. Or is there some kind of agreement within the NFP electoral alliance binding them to try and form a government with LFI first?
They fully support Ukraine, voted for Finland and Sweden's NATO membership and back continued sanctions on Russia. Supporting Ukraine is part of the NFP's common platform and was a non-negotiable demand of Glucksmann's Place Publique to enter the coalition. In terms of democratic norms, they abide by classic parliamentary politics, have participated to previous governments under Hollande, and govern a few big cities (Strasbourg, Poitiers, Bordeaux, Marseille, Paris) in coalition with PS, either as senior or junior partners. They also have one of the best performing parties in terms of internal democracy, with regular elections, different movements and a high tolerance for dissent, unlike LFI's vertical organization around Mélenchon and his close circle of allies. Economically, they're close to LFI and are staunchly anti-nuclear energy, but in terms of respect for democratic norms, they're on the sane side of the spectrum. There's no consensus among NFP on a PM name yet, LFI keeps pushing for one of their own but won't be able to survive a motion of no-confidence if they do. Either they compromize and accept a name from another party, or there's no government for at least a year. We'll see what LFI prefer, but they've already lost 5 MPs (Corbière, Ruffin, Autain, Davi, Simonnet) who defected/were purged to other left-wing groups because of their inflexibility, seeing other defections isn't excluded if they keep their sectarian streak.
https://preview.redd.it/ruk4jua72cbd1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74321345d8057ef67a5461eaf868b08d547ff487
I honestly have no idea how they're going to reach an agreement. I think Tondelier would be one of the better choices. But I expect them to avoid party leaders to convince Mélenchon to stand down.
The coalition itself is weird. Officially, it's against nuclear but I know the Communist Party is pro-nuclear. The Greens are anti-nuclear. Honestly, the Communists seem to be the better party in the coalition which I never thought I'd ever say about a Communist Party
> The Greens are anti-nuclear. *Sigh.* MANY SUCH CASES! (Although actually I'm surprised to hear this is the case in France, of all places, which is very strongly on the pro-nuclear side of the green debate within Europe and has a ton of power plants compared to everyone else.)
Greens and being idiotic on nuclear energy is the norm at this point. Lenin and Stalin can rise from hell, declare nuclear as something good, went to heaven because of their support for nuclear, and they would still spite at them.
The communist party being pro nuclear? Wow
Their website says, "This project will aim for strong growth in electricity production, by investing in renewable energies (solar, wind and especially in hydraulics, controllable renewable energy) and in nuclear electricity with the construction of at least six additional EPRs." [https://www-pcf-fr.translate.goog/objectif\_4?\_x\_tr\_sl=fr&\_x\_tr\_tl=en&\_x\_tr\_hl=en&\_x\_tr\_pto=wapp](https://www-pcf-fr.translate.goog/objectif_4?_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Is the French Communist party marxist Leninist in the style of China? If so, I’m unsurprised they’re pro nuclear.
Chinese communists aren't ML I don't think they're dengists or something like that
That’s why I said “in the style of China.” The Chinese communist party would tell you that they are continuing the work of Marx, Lenin, and Mao by pursuing their own vision of socialist work- socialism with Chinese characteristics, as they would say. I won’t get into the debate about whether or not this is what they are actually doing, but it’s what they themselves claim and appear to believe. Anyway that’s all not really the point. I was just curious about whether the French communist party aligns itself to the Chinese communist party.
The French Communist Party isn't actually Communist anymore. Hasn't been since Robert Hue in the 90s. Despite only getting 2.5% of the votes the last few times they ran, they're still (and by far) the party with the most *adhérents*, or subscribers with a party card. They're economically very left (tax on the wealthy, strong social security net, favorable to public spending), but also pro-cop (although on that the leadership and the membres don't necessarily alignement), very, very quite on racism, pro-nuclear and industry. One of the reason they have survived is that they're still very strong on a local level thanks to a clear ideology built on a hundred year of experiences, and most left wing coalitions include them. When you vote for them for a mayorship, you know that means strong public services, free school meals, lots of various associations (sports, cultural, free to use utilities). LFI on the other hand is very strong at the national level, thanks to very well recognized figureheads (especially Mélenchon who is extremely popular in poor suburbs with lots of children or grandchildren of immigrants), but has no big city, no real local présence.
Is PS pro-nuclear?
Sounds like a shitshow in the making to be honest. Like i get that strategically voting to prevent the far right from taking over, but if there's no plan or ability to compromise, it's just gonna end up kicking the can down the road. I'm looking at the parties that form this coalition and there's honestly no way this is going to work out in the long run.
Honestly it shouldn't. That's the end result of a big tente, centrist party : when you've taken everything over, you either create a Utopia in (in this case) 3 years, or you make whatever is left out the only viable alternative. An alliance that would go from LFI (or even only PS) to Horizons is a death sentence for the country. There won't be a coalition. At this point I'm betting on lots of posturing and a minimal budget while everyone gets ready for a new dissolution in one year time.
"Oh boy! I'm glad France turned out to be not that messed up!" "Wait, what do you mean the PM agreement is going to be a shitshow?"
If anyone is going to blow up the coalition and allow the far-right to coast into power, either through arrogance or incompetence, it's for sure going to be Melenchon.
It's a coalition that has a Communist party and an economically liberal party that increased the retirement age. It's a coalition held together with wet toilet paper.
What party in the NSF increased the retirement age? If you mean Ensemble, confidence and supply does not equal coalition.
Oh boy, I hope it's me.
I just hope you're ready
I'm not but that's ok ❤️
Closed eyes, full speed, can't lose.
I'll do it if they'll let me govern from an office park in suburban New York
Let's just hope he won't be from LFI
I think it would be a blessing, he won’t be able to do anything and we can just point and laugh because radicality and extremism can’t do shit.
The problem is LFI have an established base of support in the banlieues. However bad they do they will have a minimum level of support.
L'Islamo-Marxisme!!1
Ba'athism experiencing Frenchness?
My money is on Tondelier since she's liked both by all parties in the NFP and by Macron himself, who knows what Melenchon's ambitions will cause though...
!ping EU&FRANCE
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Wonder if they'll find someone who can actually unite the party this time
Never bet on left unity
-Socialist Party politician -Experience in government -High name recognition are you guys thinking what i'm thinking https://preview.redd.it/hf9bp2rd5fbd1.png?width=440&format=png&auto=webp&s=017d7a45aa04cc9b51f59054317f34bd9c92eb49
He got 5% approval, in France. That guy is such a popular politician for such a hateful country, Macron too, 30% approval in France? Insane.
I wonder if it will be a collation government with macron or will it be npf minority government
What about Glucksmann?