Even when Reddit could implode tomorrow, I'm glad to see that the TFS fans will still gravitate towards eachother in threads that have nothing to do with TFS
> Putin was reportedly heard raving that he knew Putin’s fingerprints were all over the plan to kill Putin and signed an executive order authorizing Putin to assassinate Putin before Putin could give Putin the go ahead to have Putin assassinate Putin.
Love it.
That multiple monitor thing hits hard. I have 4 at the moment. 5 if you include a random one I got recently.
But I need more.
One is for mobaxterm to compile stuff. One for my debugger on accuterm. One for outlook. One for Chrome. Another for my database lookup. On occasion, there's more.
I had 5 while teaching elementary online year before last, and joined a Google meet on an iPad to use it as a whiteboard. It was incredible.
I need to figure out how to use my quest as multiple screens on a daily basis. Or get Santa to bring me a Vision Pro.
It can have its uses but when it comes down to it, it's a poor substitute for humans. Ai children books are a good example of room for growth
[Behind the Bastards] Part One: AI Is Coming for Your Children #behindTheBastards
https://podcastaddict.com/behind-the-bastards/episode/159492707 via @PodcastAddict
This is one of those titles that gets read off in the meeting room, there's a brief pause, and then everyone just starts laughing. They put it on the title as a joke for the editor, who thought
*huh. Now our titles are finally making sense, great job everyone*
"Ukrainian military retakes territory as Russian military distracted by civil war" or similar. As others said, the title is supposed to be as absurd as the scenario is. The military "second only to USA" fails to annex Ukraine and is now falling apart from the inside.
Russia went from the second most powerful military in the world to the second most powerful military in Ukraine. And with Wagner pulling out, they may be down to third place.
I absolutely loved it and have no issues whatsoever with their choice in title. I saw a hilarious comment from Reddit when this first came down (but unfortunately don’t know the user to credit):
> Putin is so incompetent that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ending with the Russian invasion of Russia
Because tanks in your city likely either means you’re being occupied or you’re about to get raided hard as fuck so the feeling of misplacement is probably fear of seeing tanks in your city
The one (only?) time that wasn't the case was when someone basically stole a tank and rampaged through the streets of San Diego. And, yes, the videos of that were surreal.
Military vehicles dont have ignition keys, the doors/hatches padlock shut. You cut the padlock or if it gets left unlocked there is nothing stopping you.
Look up August 1968 Czechoslovakia. For example: https://theworldinbetween.com/2012/08/19/ladislav-bielik-and-the-iconic-photograph-of-1968-czechoslovakia/
I honestly think it's a sign that things are starting to crack in Russia. I'm curious as to how many of those Wagner fighters are willing to join up with the regular Russian military, or fight for them.
It’s a small crack. Not enough to bring Putin down. But it’s the first of the inevitable many. It’ll take a lot more for the depoliticized majority of Russians to entirely consider the regime out of control and mass opposition movement to follow. But it’s a good solid start.
I actually think this was a massive humiliation to Putin.
Putin had been pushing for mercenary groups (like Wagner) to [sign contracts with the Russian MoD](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-backs-push-mercenary-groups-sign-contracts-despite-wagners-refusal-2023-06-13/) that would integrate them more with the Russian military. This was something Prigohzin didn’t like.
Prigohzin was able to *openly* call for a coup, turn his troops around, and seize control of a fairly strategically important Russian city without too much of a struggle.
During his brief March to Moscow Wagner troops shot down several Russian helicopters and the Russian Air Force destroyed several strategically important fuel depots to try to hinder Wagner.
Somehow, despite all of the extremely public bashing Prigohzin has done against the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian military, Putin decided to allow Prigohzin to go to Belarus and pardoned the Wagner troops. It’s insane that Putin seems to have allowed Prigohzin to just walk away.
I think its insanity Prigohzin just accepted these terms. Surely he knows he's going to end up falling out of a 12 story building in the near future, right?
Even *if* Prigohzin is assassinated at some point in the future, the damage to Putin’s authority has already been done.
Prigohzin was able to openly call for a coup and actually seized control of a Russian city, while also shooting down multiple Russian helicopters. And then he was able to walk away.
No trial, no prison time, no execution, etc. He just gets to leave to another country.
The fact that prominent Russians have tweeted saying there are now two presidents of Russia, “President” Putin and the real president Prigozhin, should be pretty damn telling to anyone.
It’s more that the damage to Putin’s image inside of Russia has already happened.
If Prigohzin ends up being assassinated at some later date, that won’t really help fix the current problems.
I think Putin made the offer because he expected Wagner could do significant damage in Moscow and/or humiliate him even more than they already did.
I think Prigozhin accepted the offer because he got less support in his rebellion than he expected/some key partiets waited it out too long, and realised his only other option was a most likely very painful death so he took the money and whatever else they agreed to.
Thanks for attending my armchair general TED Talk
I think he is going to replace lushenko, who has been pretty eratic recently. Moscow said.. hey.. why not take over that country instead and we won't stand in your way.
I seriously doubt that. Bellarus is barely hanging on as it is now and you think the citizenry will just sit by and let an outsider and thug like him take over with no say in the matter? It would lead to full blown civil war with like 5 different factions fighting eachother.
It is. It’s not trivial. This made Putin look really bad. He went from the untouchable* almost mythological leader to just the leader, with flesh and blood.
Not enough to see him lose control right away, but opens up ways for his authority to see actual decline.
> It’s insane that Putin seems to have allowed Prigohzin to just walk away.
News reports a month from now: _Prigohzin accidentally fell out of a window onto some bullets in Belarus this week..._
Don't forget that Putin released a statement where he claimed this was a dangerous event that could be the destruction of ruzzia if left unchecked, and that Putin called for all of the Wagner soldiers participating to be captured and face a fate worse than death. He called for the capture and torture of even their side supporters. And then less than half a day later, he is forced to give them a full pardon and send them on their way to live in Belarus instead.
It looks like the Wagner PMC is going to be dissolved and the soldiers absorbed into the Russian military, which just seems like a *horrible* thing if you are Putin. If you are a dictator, you need to have the full support of the military.
As such, integrating soldiers who supported a coup attempt into your own exhausted military force seems like a bad idea.
The biggest impact is that it has spooked Russians by revealing just how little internal security they have. Russia has been able to get around all the *"Russia is going to run out of X"* predictions by cannibalizing resources far more than was wise. It's the opposite of the US, who has been hesitant to fully supply Ukraine due to needing to keep reserves high enough to deal with other threats, among other reasons. Russia put all their eggs in the Ukrainian basket and Prigozhin put a huge spotlight on the negative ramification for doing so.
This now puts the Russian government into an impossible situation. They can replenish internal reserves or they can continue in Ukraine. They can do one, but not both, and even the one is going to be extremely difficult due to sanctions.
My guess is Russia will continue to ignore domestic security, but every incursion or drone attack is going to ramp up domestic unease even more than before. The Russian citizens now feel vulnerable, and they don't like it. An uneasy citizenry is really bad for governments.
Btw, best proof ever that nobody was planning to invade Russia. Because right now anyone who was planning on it could obviously do it with an army as small as a private military company, yet nobody is doing that.
It's important to note that a lot of Russia was on Wagner's side. A significant percentage of the army and security services either outright refused to attack them, or were stalling while they tried to figure out which side to throw in with. Not sure any other invading military would get the same treatment.
Having said that they definitely had a far easier time with it than I think anyone could have anticipated.
I don't think it's proof of that at all. Prigozhin had an easy time of it because a lot of the Russian military was reluctant/unwilling to fight Wagner troops. The amount of resistance encountered by any other invading force would be much larger.
They were blocking highways with dump trucks, and 2-4 of them reach direction at that. They no longer have gear to fight with.
The men at the crossings may support the cause, but also up against heavy armor with none of their own is suicide.
Ukraine doesn’t need a full social and political revolution in Russia. They just need the Russian military to get so pissed off, low on morale, and angry at each other, that they aren’t an effective fighting force.
Hopefully this event plants the seed for some mini-mutinies. Individual units refusing to follow orders. Or only saying they’ll follow an order from certain officers. Or not giving supplies to rival factions. Stuff like that.
Agreed. Though in the long term, Ukraine will not know real peace unless the Putin regime crumbles. Even if they pushed Russia out to the pre-2022 lines or even retake Crimea, as long as Putin is in control, he’ll keep lobbing missiles and shells into eastern Ukraine to make sure it can’t join NATO.
But yeah, tiny steps.
I dunno. Putin is 70. Fair chance he dies of natural causes within a decade. When he does there will be a fight for power and the same kind of shit will just start over. Probably.
A decade is a long time though. A lot of changes can happen in the meantime. He knows he can’t outright win in Ukraine at this point, but he’s waiting for western support of Ukraine to shrink as public support dwindles due to economic downturn and more far-right parties and politicians take power in the west.
That’s a long shot of course, but not an impossibility.
> It’ll take a lot more for the depoliticized majority of Russians to
You're delusional if you think it's about the average Russian.
Russia is a state run kind of like a mafia. The war on Ukraine is funded by the "oligarchs". The rich in Russia are hemorrhaging money. There are new private armies popping up left and right.
Putin won't be brought down by "the people". If he is brought down, it'll be because he loses support from his "mafia friends" / oligarchs.
Change rarely comes from the lower classes. It's usually the somewhat powerful bringing down the elites.
> It’s a small crack
Tanks rolling through your streets and helicopters getting shot down warrants classification as something larger than a small crack.
You're looking at it from the Western perspective that if a government is bad, the people will rise up eventually. In Russia it will be just a coup or civil war, no one will ask the people what they want, while they will hide their heads in the sand like they always do. Just like with all the previous "revolutions" in Russia - later a myth is created that it was a popular uprising to legitimize a coup.
It’s always the oligarchs rearranging positions of power among themselves, yes. But that won’t happen without the current leader losing support of the public.
Kind of like the various military coups in southwest Asia tbh. The military won’t act until they think one side has the upper hand. Then they move in and make a deal with the “winner”.
So utterly dissatisfying from a western perspective to have been teased like this. Even if he lacked the capability to overthrow the government, giving it a real go would have been.. elucidating to say the least.
No. This is not what we want, this person should not ever have a nuclear arsenal at his disposal, ever. He is an evil criminal, literally by all accounts a real life super villain. He will show no restraint and might end the world.
Everything you just said applies to Putin. I agree that he is a danger to the planet, but when his destruction is restricted to the Kremlin we must fan those flames. The enemy of my enemy and all that.
> I'm curious as to how many of those Wagner fighters are willing to join up with the regular Russian military, or fight for them.
Let’s see. Sign up with the team you found incompetent to begin with, hence being a mercenary. That then bombed your own men, which you then turned around and took out a few of theirs. Your own leadership has been bagging on them forever… the list goes on and on.
I am going to go with less than 10%. Most will flee seeing it as a free pass to their only way out and not getting the sledgehammer to the face. So only the super desperate would sign up.
A lot will be hoping to just disappear into another private gig somewhere so there war crimes don’t catch up to them.
Mercenaries are opportunists. They will do whatever is best for them in a given situation. So whether they will join the Russian military or not will depend on available alternatives. For many the only alternative will be going back home and being out of a job in the war-torn Russian economy.
Russia cracked thirty years ago and has been undergoing irreversible state failure ever since, to which any appearance otherwise has always been a facade by the latest gangsters that took it over. Conflict with the neighbours and itself has been inevitable since Black October, it was just a matter of when.
State failure is like war or pandemics, where people expect it to happen a lot faster than it actually does. In reality, Russia's shaping up to be a very typical demonstration of a society slipping back into gangsterdom and then anarchy following its peak.
The difference is the world gives a whole lotta shit about this one because… Nukes.
Can’t just say well, Russians will have to figure this out themselves
I don't think Russia will give them better pay considering how it treats the rest of their own army. They're likely getting a paycut and a lot of other things slashed out of this.
Russia needs some form of elite units, especially after they lost a lot of them in the earlier stages of the war.
They're gonna get decent payment but far less freedom.
You would think with how much they need such elite soldiers, they wouldn’t have launched a missile at them.
Or maybe it’s some 4D chess move I’m too western to understand
Most of Russia's army is young kids who don't have fighting experience or the will. The Mercs where the ones who did most of the heavy work. Doesn't matter how Russia treats their army if they pay the minimum price
As someone else posted, Russia had second most powerful army on Earth, then second most powerful army in Ukraine, then second most powerful army in Russia.
This is potentially Ukraine's moment to strike a major victory against Russia, but the entire situation is extremely murky. External reporters have been arrested, and Elon's Twitter has been pretty permissive of bot and troll accounts. In the case of an attempted coup, those accounts could be operating for either side. Just as a note of caution about whatever you're seeing about the story there.
Ukraine's tactical objective for this summer's campaign is to push south to the Sea of Azov. It doesn't matter exactly where they land, but the objective is cut off northern access to Crimea and then complete the destruction of the Kerch bridge using artillery from the coast of the Sea of Azov. This would completely cut off the Russian military from resupply by land in Crimea, and Russia does not have the capacity to maintain the army there any other way. This chaos may be the time for Ukraine to strike, but the Russians have had more than a year to fortify the front with minefields and defensive positions. We'll have to wait and see what happens, the whole thing is unpredictable.
I'm having a hard time getting into the minds of a Wagner fighter right now.
My leader just told me the fight in Ukraine was pointless and all we are there for is to enrich the top brass. Now you want me to turn around throw myself back to the meatgrinder like this whole thing never happened?
I've got to be honest. I don't understand why all the news outlets keep trying to paint a picture that Ukraine is doing better than it actually is. I understand wanting to improve morale, but I don't see enough stories out there about how much more help Ukraine needs.
Even with this spring offensive and the Wagner incident, Ukrainian forces haven't managed to regain as much territory as they hoped. This needs to be more covered in a realistic light to help people understand why we need to continue helping Ukraine.
[Putin Learns Putin Behind Plot To Assassinate Putin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vm1U5E44W90&t=1s)
“Putin tried to kill me? I’ll kill him! Wait, I can’t kill myself, that’s what Putin wants…”
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I AM THE HYPE!!!!
AH! MY RAGE HAS BLINDED ME!
YOU! NAMEKIAN! TOO STRONG! EXPLAIN!
"He fused with Kame" "What the fuck is a Kame?" "It basically means god" "What? But I'm standing right here!"
Do you really believe your own hype that much?
I AM THE HYPE!
Bitch, I’m adorable
HEY, VEGEEETTAAAA
No kami is god. Kame house is where the turtle lives.
.. don't make *me* come over there...
RENEGADE FOR LIFE
*Did anyone get the number of that Bitch?*
*Eighteen.*
*Thank you*
VEGETA, NO! "Vegeta YES!"
Even when Reddit could implode tomorrow, I'm glad to see that the TFS fans will still gravitate towards eachother in threads that have nothing to do with TFS
r/suddenlytfs
Wows it's real, a surprise to be sure.
But a welcome one
Just finished rewatching DBZA for probably the 5th time. Guess it can't hurt to do it again lol
The creator commentary they've been releasing has been great as well.
Interrobang gang, rise up‽
“Unless that’s exactly what he wants me to think…”
LOL I read this as Mayor Adam West
It's a Putiny!
Reminds me of Crusader kings where the spymaster would you tell you about his plot to kill you.
[Roger a Muirebe](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXR5g-VUwAAl6m7.png)
> Putin was reportedly heard raving that he knew Putin’s fingerprints were all over the plan to kill Putin and signed an executive order authorizing Putin to assassinate Putin before Putin could give Putin the go ahead to have Putin assassinate Putin. Love it.
That multiple monitor thing hits hard. I have 4 at the moment. 5 if you include a random one I got recently. But I need more. One is for mobaxterm to compile stuff. One for my debugger on accuterm. One for outlook. One for Chrome. Another for my database lookup. On occasion, there's more.
I had 5 while teaching elementary online year before last, and joined a Google meet on an iPad to use it as a whiteboard. It was incredible. I need to figure out how to use my quest as multiple screens on a daily basis. Or get Santa to bring me a Vision Pro.
theres an app called ovrdrop on steam that will let you put screens as overlays in to anything, i havent used it for more than 1 though
Have you heard of these weird things called *windows*? I think they're gonna be a gamechanger.
Yep, immediately what I thought of
All whilst Reddit is killing Reddit.
Brian Gosling lmfao
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Fuck, this AI is competent. Which scares me.
It can have its uses but when it comes down to it, it's a poor substitute for humans. Ai children books are a good example of room for growth [Behind the Bastards] Part One: AI Is Coming for Your Children #behindTheBastards https://podcastaddict.com/behind-the-bastards/episode/159492707 via @PodcastAddict
It’s a poor substitute for humans right now, for certain tasks. Give it 10 years and we’ll see how much humans progress vs AI.
I hate this title. Kudos, Insider.
Russia attacks Russia in Russia. "What the hell are you doing?" "I'm kicking my ass!!"
DO YA MIND?!
In Soviet Russia, Russia attacks Russia.
In Tsarist Russia Soviet Russia Russian Federation Russia attacks Russia
In Russia, Russia attacks Russia pretty much describes Russia.
Multipolar Russia
“If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes should fall like a house of cards. Checkmate!” -Russia probably
My instinct is to hide in this barrel, like the wily fish.
According to Russia though, Ukraine is Russia, so in fact Russia has been attacking Russia the entire time, according to Russia
I think they knew exactly what they were doing. They’re making fun of this situation too.
It reads like they tried a dozen others, got frustrated, and was "Fuck it. They'll understand what we mean. I give up."
I think they did this intentionally to highlight absurdity.
This is one of those titles that gets read off in the meeting room, there's a brief pause, and then everyone just starts laughing. They put it on the title as a joke for the editor, who thought *huh. Now our titles are finally making sense, great job everyone*
Nah, they did it to be cutesy. They knew it was cheesy.
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"Russia loses ground in Ukraine as Russia Fights Against Attack by its Own Mercenary Group"
Can you turn that into a haiku?
Wagner turns around Russian Civil War afoot? Ukraine advances
I feel like this is the best of the ones posted thus far. Sounds a lot more "mystic".
You could even say poetic!
Ukraine gained ground while Russia fights with Russia and Putin fled Moscow
Ukraine wins a bit. Wagner commits treason, lol. Putin is poopy.
Yeah no, humour was the point here
"Ukrainian military retakes territory as Russian military distracted by civil war" or similar. As others said, the title is supposed to be as absurd as the scenario is. The military "second only to USA" fails to annex Ukraine and is now falling apart from the inside.
Russia went from the second most powerful military in the world to the second most powerful military in Ukraine. And with Wagner pulling out, they may be down to third place.
They were briefly the second most powerful military in Russia too.
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I love it, made me chuckle.
It's a hilarious phrasing and they knew exactly what they were doing. Weird that so many people are struggling with that obvious fact.
I absolutely loved it and have no issues whatsoever with their choice in title. I saw a hilarious comment from Reddit when this first came down (but unfortunately don’t know the user to credit): > Putin is so incompetent that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ending with the Russian invasion of Russia
journalist had a field day
I thought that was the joke
I never get used to seeing tanks in city environments. They look so utterly misplaced and alien.
Tell that to Tank Man.
There is no such man and any reference to any such man will be met with consequences. The state acknowledges your cooperation.
I was going to upvote your comment but here's +10 social points instead comrade.
Because tanks in your city likely either means you’re being occupied or you’re about to get raided hard as fuck so the feeling of misplacement is probably fear of seeing tanks in your city
The one (only?) time that wasn't the case was when someone basically stole a tank and rampaged through the streets of San Diego. And, yes, the videos of that were surreal.
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Tanks are known to shrink when washed. Always dry clean your tanks instead.
I remember that! I believe it was an m60 from the national guard base. Homeboy somehow just walked in and started the bitch up.
Military vehicles dont have ignition keys, the doors/hatches padlock shut. You cut the padlock or if it gets left unlocked there is nothing stopping you.
Other than the obvious of knowing how to drive a tank lol
Never driven a tank but a M113 which is tracked was easy peasy. Strykers were even easier. Steering wheel. Prndl gear selector, etc.
That’s fair. Given the fact that combat would be high stress, you’d want the controls to be as practical as possible.
That and well we werent known for being the birghtest crayons in the box. Gotta keep it simple in general lol.
Dunno, in my country we get them driving around in parades every year at independence day, still feels super cursed.
That was my time in Iraq. Felt like I was in the wrong neighborhood.
Well, to be fair, you were. It wasn't your fault, you were given bad directions.
Yeah, should have been in Saudi
Just as mind-boggling: Leopard tanks used in West Germany during the Cold War were installed with turn signals.
That's not some cold war relic. Military vehicles still by and large have turn signals because sometimes they need to drive on roads during peacetime.
I was in Delhi a few years ago, they were using a tank on the motorway for traffic control
I mean, if the barrel tells me to go left, I go left.
Tanks, or other type of military vehicles, are in fact not an uncommon sight in some Indian cities that have military enclaves.
Look up August 1968 Czechoslovakia. For example: https://theworldinbetween.com/2012/08/19/ladislav-bielik-and-the-iconic-photograph-of-1968-czechoslovakia/
I hope I never get used to it.
Bob Loblaw Lobs Law Bomb
That’s a low blow, Loblaw!
The Bob Loblaw law blog.
Bob Oblaw, Attorney at Law
Bob Loblaw Law Blog
I honestly think it's a sign that things are starting to crack in Russia. I'm curious as to how many of those Wagner fighters are willing to join up with the regular Russian military, or fight for them.
It’s a small crack. Not enough to bring Putin down. But it’s the first of the inevitable many. It’ll take a lot more for the depoliticized majority of Russians to entirely consider the regime out of control and mass opposition movement to follow. But it’s a good solid start.
I actually think this was a massive humiliation to Putin. Putin had been pushing for mercenary groups (like Wagner) to [sign contracts with the Russian MoD](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-backs-push-mercenary-groups-sign-contracts-despite-wagners-refusal-2023-06-13/) that would integrate them more with the Russian military. This was something Prigohzin didn’t like. Prigohzin was able to *openly* call for a coup, turn his troops around, and seize control of a fairly strategically important Russian city without too much of a struggle. During his brief March to Moscow Wagner troops shot down several Russian helicopters and the Russian Air Force destroyed several strategically important fuel depots to try to hinder Wagner. Somehow, despite all of the extremely public bashing Prigohzin has done against the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian military, Putin decided to allow Prigohzin to go to Belarus and pardoned the Wagner troops. It’s insane that Putin seems to have allowed Prigohzin to just walk away.
I think its insanity Prigohzin just accepted these terms. Surely he knows he's going to end up falling out of a 12 story building in the near future, right?
Even *if* Prigohzin is assassinated at some point in the future, the damage to Putin’s authority has already been done. Prigohzin was able to openly call for a coup and actually seized control of a Russian city, while also shooting down multiple Russian helicopters. And then he was able to walk away. No trial, no prison time, no execution, etc. He just gets to leave to another country.
The fact that prominent Russians have tweeted saying there are now two presidents of Russia, “President” Putin and the real president Prigozhin, should be pretty damn telling to anyone.
Their chaos is so fucking delicious
And self-inflicted
Will the real Czar please stand up?
Seize 2 Russian cities.
Both cities have population higher than a million. Insane
Dont forget one of the cities had nuclear weapons stores there and i think wagner even had controll of it
So your reasoning is that Prigozhin would *already* be dead if that were what Putin wanted/ if Putin were more in control of the situation?
It’s more that the damage to Putin’s image inside of Russia has already happened. If Prigohzin ends up being assassinated at some later date, that won’t really help fix the current problems.
I think Putin made the offer because he expected Wagner could do significant damage in Moscow and/or humiliate him even more than they already did. I think Prigozhin accepted the offer because he got less support in his rebellion than he expected/some key partiets waited it out too long, and realised his only other option was a most likely very painful death so he took the money and whatever else they agreed to. Thanks for attending my armchair general TED Talk
Die getting blown up or die being tortured. One of these will happen now that he's not surrounded by an army. Makes no sense
Die in a firefight tomorrow or out of a window in a month. Honestly even that makes me wonder if he's thinking clearly.
I think he is going to replace lushenko, who has been pretty eratic recently. Moscow said.. hey.. why not take over that country instead and we won't stand in your way.
I seriously doubt that. Bellarus is barely hanging on as it is now and you think the citizenry will just sit by and let an outsider and thug like him take over with no say in the matter? It would lead to full blown civil war with like 5 different factions fighting eachother.
and where better to have your murderous rampaging mercenary army than a full blown civil war?
even if wagner sustained 0 casualties they still couldn't control the entirety of Belarus with only 25,000 soldiers
US intelligence believes it was closer to 8000 troops
Lukashenko would have something to say about that. He still controls the army and police of Belarus.
It is. It’s not trivial. This made Putin look really bad. He went from the untouchable* almost mythological leader to just the leader, with flesh and blood. Not enough to see him lose control right away, but opens up ways for his authority to see actual decline.
> It’s insane that Putin seems to have allowed Prigohzin to just walk away. News reports a month from now: _Prigohzin accidentally fell out of a window onto some bullets in Belarus this week..._
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Don't forget that Putin released a statement where he claimed this was a dangerous event that could be the destruction of ruzzia if left unchecked, and that Putin called for all of the Wagner soldiers participating to be captured and face a fate worse than death. He called for the capture and torture of even their side supporters. And then less than half a day later, he is forced to give them a full pardon and send them on their way to live in Belarus instead.
It looks like the Wagner PMC is going to be dissolved and the soldiers absorbed into the Russian military, which just seems like a *horrible* thing if you are Putin. If you are a dictator, you need to have the full support of the military. As such, integrating soldiers who supported a coup attempt into your own exhausted military force seems like a bad idea.
The biggest impact is that it has spooked Russians by revealing just how little internal security they have. Russia has been able to get around all the *"Russia is going to run out of X"* predictions by cannibalizing resources far more than was wise. It's the opposite of the US, who has been hesitant to fully supply Ukraine due to needing to keep reserves high enough to deal with other threats, among other reasons. Russia put all their eggs in the Ukrainian basket and Prigozhin put a huge spotlight on the negative ramification for doing so. This now puts the Russian government into an impossible situation. They can replenish internal reserves or they can continue in Ukraine. They can do one, but not both, and even the one is going to be extremely difficult due to sanctions. My guess is Russia will continue to ignore domestic security, but every incursion or drone attack is going to ramp up domestic unease even more than before. The Russian citizens now feel vulnerable, and they don't like it. An uneasy citizenry is really bad for governments.
Btw, best proof ever that nobody was planning to invade Russia. Because right now anyone who was planning on it could obviously do it with an army as small as a private military company, yet nobody is doing that.
It's important to note that a lot of Russia was on Wagner's side. A significant percentage of the army and security services either outright refused to attack them, or were stalling while they tried to figure out which side to throw in with. Not sure any other invading military would get the same treatment. Having said that they definitely had a far easier time with it than I think anyone could have anticipated.
I don't think it's proof of that at all. Prigozhin had an easy time of it because a lot of the Russian military was reluctant/unwilling to fight Wagner troops. The amount of resistance encountered by any other invading force would be much larger.
They were blocking highways with dump trucks, and 2-4 of them reach direction at that. They no longer have gear to fight with. The men at the crossings may support the cause, but also up against heavy armor with none of their own is suicide.
They were trying to block Wagner troops, not kill them. If that was an invading army, they would lay mines and explosives
>If that was an invading army, they would lay mines and explosives If any invading army reached 100km from Moscow nukes would be flying.
Ukraine doesn’t need a full social and political revolution in Russia. They just need the Russian military to get so pissed off, low on morale, and angry at each other, that they aren’t an effective fighting force. Hopefully this event plants the seed for some mini-mutinies. Individual units refusing to follow orders. Or only saying they’ll follow an order from certain officers. Or not giving supplies to rival factions. Stuff like that.
Agreed. Though in the long term, Ukraine will not know real peace unless the Putin regime crumbles. Even if they pushed Russia out to the pre-2022 lines or even retake Crimea, as long as Putin is in control, he’ll keep lobbing missiles and shells into eastern Ukraine to make sure it can’t join NATO. But yeah, tiny steps.
I dunno. Putin is 70. Fair chance he dies of natural causes within a decade. When he does there will be a fight for power and the same kind of shit will just start over. Probably.
A decade is a long time though. A lot of changes can happen in the meantime. He knows he can’t outright win in Ukraine at this point, but he’s waiting for western support of Ukraine to shrink as public support dwindles due to economic downturn and more far-right parties and politicians take power in the west. That’s a long shot of course, but not an impossibility.
He’s waiting to see if Trump can take the White House. Long shot indeed.
> It’ll take a lot more for the depoliticized majority of Russians to You're delusional if you think it's about the average Russian. Russia is a state run kind of like a mafia. The war on Ukraine is funded by the "oligarchs". The rich in Russia are hemorrhaging money. There are new private armies popping up left and right. Putin won't be brought down by "the people". If he is brought down, it'll be because he loses support from his "mafia friends" / oligarchs. Change rarely comes from the lower classes. It's usually the somewhat powerful bringing down the elites.
History is just various cycles of the mildly wealthy riling up the poors enough to take out the very wealthy
> It’s a small crack Tanks rolling through your streets and helicopters getting shot down warrants classification as something larger than a small crack.
You're looking at it from the Western perspective that if a government is bad, the people will rise up eventually. In Russia it will be just a coup or civil war, no one will ask the people what they want, while they will hide their heads in the sand like they always do. Just like with all the previous "revolutions" in Russia - later a myth is created that it was a popular uprising to legitimize a coup.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloody_Sunday_(1905) There have been. But these days the state does hold a lot more power over people, granted.
It’s always the oligarchs rearranging positions of power among themselves, yes. But that won’t happen without the current leader losing support of the public. Kind of like the various military coups in southwest Asia tbh. The military won’t act until they think one side has the upper hand. Then they move in and make a deal with the “winner”.
So utterly dissatisfying from a western perspective to have been teased like this. Even if he lacked the capability to overthrow the government, giving it a real go would have been.. elucidating to say the least.
It was like a really good pilot to a show that wasn't greenlit
No. This is not what we want, this person should not ever have a nuclear arsenal at his disposal, ever. He is an evil criminal, literally by all accounts a real life super villain. He will show no restraint and might end the world.
Everything you just said applies to Putin. I agree that he is a danger to the planet, but when his destruction is restricted to the Kremlin we must fan those flames. The enemy of my enemy and all that.
> I'm curious as to how many of those Wagner fighters are willing to join up with the regular Russian military, or fight for them. Let’s see. Sign up with the team you found incompetent to begin with, hence being a mercenary. That then bombed your own men, which you then turned around and took out a few of theirs. Your own leadership has been bagging on them forever… the list goes on and on. I am going to go with less than 10%. Most will flee seeing it as a free pass to their only way out and not getting the sledgehammer to the face. So only the super desperate would sign up. A lot will be hoping to just disappear into another private gig somewhere so there war crimes don’t catch up to them.
Mercenaries are opportunists. They will do whatever is best for them in a given situation. So whether they will join the Russian military or not will depend on available alternatives. For many the only alternative will be going back home and being out of a job in the war-torn Russian economy.
I wouldnt view wagner soldiers as traditional mercenaries though. They are ultra nationalists.
Russia cracked thirty years ago and has been undergoing irreversible state failure ever since, to which any appearance otherwise has always been a facade by the latest gangsters that took it over. Conflict with the neighbours and itself has been inevitable since Black October, it was just a matter of when. State failure is like war or pandemics, where people expect it to happen a lot faster than it actually does. In reality, Russia's shaping up to be a very typical demonstration of a society slipping back into gangsterdom and then anarchy following its peak.
The whole narrative they have about the west wanting to overrun them militarily. The had no one defending the place from 90 to 95. No one cared.
The difference is the world gives a whole lotta shit about this one because… Nukes. Can’t just say well, Russians will have to figure this out themselves
Let's hope someone better comes along next time. Prigozhin's resume would've made Stalin proud. He would've been far worse than Putin.
If that's not a sign of Russia failing, idk what the fuck is tbh
Depends on who pays better. Remember they are mercenaries. They have no allegiance except money and opportunities.
I don't think Russia will give them better pay considering how it treats the rest of their own army. They're likely getting a paycut and a lot of other things slashed out of this.
Russia needs some form of elite units, especially after they lost a lot of them in the earlier stages of the war. They're gonna get decent payment but far less freedom.
You would think with how much they need such elite soldiers, they wouldn’t have launched a missile at them. Or maybe it’s some 4D chess move I’m too western to understand
Most of Russia's army is young kids who don't have fighting experience or the will. The Mercs where the ones who did most of the heavy work. Doesn't matter how Russia treats their army if they pay the minimum price
Mercenary groups pay better. And you can't match unless you can match it for everyone, and I don't think Russia has the dollarbucks.
The opposite, the question is how much of the russian conscripts would side with wagner, which going by how the "coup" went is pretty high.
Damn Russians! They've ruined Russia!
Thats the history of Russia in the last 150 years in a nutshell.
That’s the history of Russia since after the mongols actually
I'd be more concerned if Russia didn't have at least an attempted coup every 50 years
Russia hurt itself in its confusion!
It was Super Effective!
You would hope so
As someone else posted, Russia had second most powerful army on Earth, then second most powerful army in Ukraine, then second most powerful army in Russia.
if wagner didn't end what they were doing that means it is still the first army in russia
Those really were some of the 24 hours in russian history of all time
Yeah, i have no idea how this world simulation got through QA.
“Ukraine gains ground during Russian infighting”
in Russia.
The writer had a great time with that title.
Missed opportunity for "...While Russia Rushes Russia in Russia," but I'll take it.
This is the type of kooky news titles I truly expect in this sub and I love it!
They're literally just stating facts, though. It sounds silly and absurd because the whole situation is exactly that.
This is potentially Ukraine's moment to strike a major victory against Russia, but the entire situation is extremely murky. External reporters have been arrested, and Elon's Twitter has been pretty permissive of bot and troll accounts. In the case of an attempted coup, those accounts could be operating for either side. Just as a note of caution about whatever you're seeing about the story there. Ukraine's tactical objective for this summer's campaign is to push south to the Sea of Azov. It doesn't matter exactly where they land, but the objective is cut off northern access to Crimea and then complete the destruction of the Kerch bridge using artillery from the coast of the Sea of Azov. This would completely cut off the Russian military from resupply by land in Crimea, and Russia does not have the capacity to maintain the army there any other way. This chaos may be the time for Ukraine to strike, but the Russians have had more than a year to fortify the front with minefields and defensive positions. We'll have to wait and see what happens, the whole thing is unpredictable.
In mother Russia, only Russia can invade Russia.
Yo Dawg, I heard you like fighting in Russia...
So the old saying goes. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” So what the hell we got here?
The enemy of my enemy is an opportunity.
Nobody makes me bleed my own blood!
I'm having a hard time getting into the minds of a Wagner fighter right now. My leader just told me the fight in Ukraine was pointless and all we are there for is to enrich the top brass. Now you want me to turn around throw myself back to the meatgrinder like this whole thing never happened?
I've got to be honest. I don't understand why all the news outlets keep trying to paint a picture that Ukraine is doing better than it actually is. I understand wanting to improve morale, but I don't see enough stories out there about how much more help Ukraine needs. Even with this spring offensive and the Wagner incident, Ukrainian forces haven't managed to regain as much territory as they hoped. This needs to be more covered in a realistic light to help people understand why we need to continue helping Ukraine.
People initially thought Russia would roll right through Ukraine. The fact they are still standing is already a major success.