He will have the leader of the mercenary group, and any loyalists who don't join the Russian military or just return to civilian life. We will just have to wait and see who goes where, and who does a swan dive off the balcony.
Also keep in mind that a lot of speculation around Wagner's future involves the assumption that Putin and Lukashenko keep their word. Those men are liars who will betray their allies the moment it becomes advantageous.
Not even advantageous imo, the moment they CAN and save face. I think Putin will probably do his best to assassinate Prigozhin, part of the issue if he does it publicly Putin probably loses a lot of support. Which he loses some anyway, at this point. Dunno how much more he can afford to lose with a literal attempted coup on the books.
>part of the issue if he does it publicly Putin probably loses a lot of respect and support
People keep saying that, but I don't see it.
I think he is fine killing Prigs in a way that would make it obvious that it was hi order. And that way he will give message to everyone who dares challange him.
That's actually the only way he get back a fraction of respect that he lost during this coup.
The problem is that message is to the oligarchs "I will kill you". Those are the people who he needs the support of most, not to mention that Prigozhin IS publicly a war hero, an unlawful and unceremonious murder would land him in legal trouble, at minimum.
Obviously we have always seen Putin lie and do whatever he wants, but a murder without some form of deniability? Never.
The only way to have gotten back some form of respect I agree is to have him killed and known it was due to Putin, I just think that legally it's hard to do without also having a civil war on your hands.
This is just untrue. Putin has been nakedly and brazenly behind many assassination attempts and successful assassinations. Someone pointed out Litvinenko’s assassination with polonium, which comes from a nuclear reactor and does NOT occur in nature. Pretty much tell-take evidence it was a state approved murder. Even crazier is that this was in the UK and not on Russian soil. Don’t know how much more transparent it can get that Putin was behind it than that.
Also pertinent and related are the Skripals, Navalny, and apartment building explosions in Russia that may have been the FSB’s doing to start a war in Chechnya.
Also, watch Putin’s address from yesterday. He has no problem using doublespeak, lies, and just babbling nonsense to spin a narrative out of nothing. They will have no problem inventing some semi-benign reason for Prigozhin’s death, or perhaps Putin will just smirk and say “he died” (watch his interview with Letterman after the Kursk submarine tragedy).
All in all, Putin is a cold blooded killer and don’t see him letting Prigozhin stay alive for long for making him look so weak.
>Someone pointed out Litvinenko’s assassination with polonium, which comes from a nuclear reactor and does NOT occur in nature.
Polonium does occur in nature and it is thought to be one of the reasons why tobacco usage has such a high risk of cancer compared to inhaling the smoke from other burning plant matter. Tobacco plants absorb a lot of polonium from their environment.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0265931X03001188
There's no way Prigozhin isn't on edge for an assassination like that, but I agree, Putin will most def be trying to find a way to do that as soon as he can. The point I'm making isn't that they aren't going to try to assassinate him, just more as to the why is he even alive right now and allowed to go to Belarus versus arrested and tried.
> Those are the people who he needs the support of most
This is kind of a common misconception. Putin is not a traditional dictator in this way. When he took power in 2000, he met with the actual oligarchs (not all rich Russians are "oligarchs") and threatened them to get in line or else. The ones who didn't, he threw in prison for tax evasion and even potentially/probably had one killed -- Boris Berezovsky, who was instrumental in helping Putin get into power in the first place.
A lot of people cite the CGP Grey video on dictators in reference to Putin, but it doesn't quite fit. Putin actually has (or at least had, until the insanity of this war) a broad base of support among Russians. He's never shown himself as being afraid of the "oligarchs" or kowtowing to them in any way. His standing up to the oligarchs -- hated by the Russians for exploiting the Russian economy for so long -- is a large part of why he had such broad support among average Russians. (It also helps that he himself is enormously independently wealthy after so many years stealing from the Russian people.)
Now he does have a tighter inner-inner circle, people whose support perhaps does matter, but the "oligarchs" it seems he mostly sees as a band of spoiled children to keep in line.
You’ve hit the nail on the head. Putin needs to make an example of Prigs or others will get ideas
The whole thing makes Putin look weak
You do not call someone a traitor and then forgive them a day after
Putin hates being betrayed and will do anything to those that do
He doesn’t need the peoples support to do what he wants. He’s unfortunately convinced the Russian public that there is no other option than him
This would be an awful scenario for Putin, if Prig dies, he does NOT want Luka taking credit for it, at the minimum you want it understood that if Prig dies it was because he crossed Putin and he paid for that. It's important to his strong guy image. Imagine how embarrassing it already is to have someone else do your negotiating for you, Russian propaganda is already criticizing Putin, to be seen as forgiving a traitor then LUKA goes for that kill would be incredibly embarrassing for Putin. Not saying it's not a possibility, but certainly one of the ones Putin wants the least.
Honestly, I think he wants to use them like Varangian Guard in Constantinople.
Foreign mercenaries that act as a body guards the the emperor/dictator in this case. Since they are Foreign and in small number they can't really get involved in politics.
This is good for Luka to protect him from domestic enemies, and Russian assassins if he gets on the wrong side of Putin.
And this is good for Wagner as it shelters them from Russia, and they are likely paid well.
Exactly. Wagner "training" the military could very well be a euphemism for embedding Wagner in the military to keep the military from finally overthrowing him or force the military at gunpoint to follow insane orders.
Driving your army to the capital with the express aim to get the Defence Secretary and top general fired, and arguably dethrone Putin (him fleeing indicates that he thought that was possible) is a coup attempt.
Prig never wanted to dethrone Putin. He loves Putin. The reason he stopped his mutiny is because he realised Putin was not going to side with him. He honestly thought if he put pressure on Putin to decide between Prigozhin or Shoigu that Putin would side with Prigozhin. When this turned out to not be the case Prig took the offer to ditch and run.
>When this turned out to not be the case Prig took the offer to ditch and run.
I wouldn't necessarily assume that turned out to not be the case. There's plenty of rumours that Shoigu will be dismissed within the next month or two. Putin can't dismiss him immediately because then it will have the appearance of him caving to Prigozhin, which would make him look extremely weak.
Keep in mind, Prigozhin was leaving Ukraine/Russia in either case. He'd been planning to leave the conflict since early May because he'd lost too many senior officers, and if he lost any more, he'd lose unit cohesion.
So while this might look from the outside like Putin rebuked him and exiled him to Belarus, it's quite possible that Putin caved to Prigozhin's demands and everything else is just a show to save face (remember, Prigozhin and Putin are best pals, and Prigozhin never once called out Putin, and Putin never once called out Prigozhin). Prigozhin will remain the head of PMC Wagner which will continue its operations in Africa. Whether he's in Rostov, Moscow, or Minsk doesn't really make any difference.
It’s nice to read an actual level headed response that factors in a lot of possibilities. There’s so many uneducated hot takes about this that it hurts.
They didn't go to the capital, they struck a deal before they got there.
It was a successfully planned and executed mutiny. Drove halfway to Moscow, shot down critical aircraft, won the hearts and minds, but stopped once a deal was struck.
Not a coup.
Good point. In the past 100 years Thailand (where I live) has had 19 coup attempts, 12 successful. That wasn't even a coup attempt; you have to be much larger to even attempt.
To me it sounds more like an inroad by Russia to fully seize control of Belarus and take Lukashenko out of the picture. This could all be orchestrated to create a Belarus “Wagnerized” army that will be willing to attack Ukraine.
I don’t trust a word out of Putin or Prickozin’s mouth.
Yeah right.
Russia and Belarus have literally been a step away from a formalized single state for decades. They are extremely close and tied together in many aspects.
Lukashenko just likes the golden chair, otherwise we'd likely have seen them merge.
Lukashenko actually aspired to be president of the Union State when negotiations first started in 1996. Before Putin's rise Lukashenko thought he had a chance at being the top dog. He was genuinely popular in Belarus at one point in the late '90s and Russians unanimously hated Yeltsin so they were open to any alternative. In 2000 Lukashenko was made the Chairman of the Supreme State Council of the Union State, making him the nominal leader.
Belarus had a major protest that ended in violence in 1999 over the prospect of a full merger. That made Lukashenko slow down negotiations and walked back talk of a full merger. the Union State. Putin was then elected to the presidency in 2000 and quickly eclipsed Lukashenko in profile, fully extinguishing Lukashenko's enthusiasm for the idea.
It's possible that thinks having Wagner will give him sort of leverage to be Putin's successor.
Any grand conspiratorial scheme that involves Putin's strong man image taking a hit is not compatible with Putinism. Even if it involves taking another country without much bloodshed. Pride and ego above all else in the mafia state.
But to be fair, we should keep our minds open to an eventuality where Prighozin and Putin decide to ally against Luka given the circumstances of some future time.
I dunno having a personal army of bodyguards didn't do all that much to make your typical Byzantine emperor much safer. They were just as likely to have their eyes gouged out and be thrown into a latrine pit by said bodyguarda
I want to say there are examples of them switching loyalties at a sudden change though, as they're loyal to the title (and the paycheck that comes from it) than the person, though I cant recall particulars at work.
About ten minutes later Doukas invented the concept of ‘Lawyers’ because the contract stating ‘loyalty to the one sitting on the throne’ wasn’t as iron clad as the guys protecting the chair.
>Nikephoros II, was assassinated and the first actions the varangians make (a minute or two afterwards) is to pledge allegiance to his murderer, still covered in his blood.
That's hardly possible. Nikephoros II was killed in 969, while the varangian guard was only found 19 years later in 988
Bad deal, those men often didn't last more than three years in office before their "guards" were bribed to knock them off and install a new paycheck, I mean Emperor.
The Palatine Guard did that, but to my knowledge the Varangian Guard never actually killed an Emperor, though they were sometimes very quick to change loyalty to the new one if the old one was assassinated by some third party.
I was referencing Emperor Nikephoros II being assassinated, though you are correct and they did not personally kill the man. Things seem to point to them not only having let the man who would assassinate him commit the deed but then immediately swearing fealty to him after the fact, implying they were complicit in allowing the act to happen.
Granted this is quite literally ancient history and that's speculation. But you are right the Palatine Guard had the hots for knocking off Emperors and the Varangians were as stalwart as a group of personal mercenaries could be.
This feels fairly likely. Integrating Wagner into the military is a bigger risk to Luka ultimately than a protection. I just think he's too big of a dipshit to realize
The Varangian Guard was a different ethnicity that didn't speak and could never be pulled into any plots against the emperor as no one in Constantinople would ever accept the rule of some Scandinavian dudes. I don't think the Belarusians are overly attached to Lukashenko nor do I really think they're going to look as Russians, including Wagner mercs, as "foreigners"
Except that one time, when the Varangian Guard tried to assassinate the Emperor Nikephoros III Botaneiates, and failed. Who promptly pardoned his would-be assassins, and brushed it off like nothing happened.
This works well, but you want to make sure you don't repeat the mistakes of that lunatic dictator in Equatorial Guinea.
He got executed by foreign mercs because he'd convinced the the local firing squad he was a goddamn wizard who would haunt them or something.
True, until the bodyguard corps inevitably accumulates its own independent wealth through ownership of land and businesses and decides to play kingmaker. See, e.g. Varangians as you mentioned, Praetorian guard, Janissary corps, Swiss guard, etc.
The Varangians only did it once, and failed tho... They tried to assassinate Nikephoros III Botaneiates. Who just brushed it off, and pardoned his would-be assassins.
...now that I think about it, this sounds rather familiar.
>Manuel V
Do you mean Michael V Kalaphates?
He was deposed before he was blinded and exiled, and was no longer the Emperor, having been usurped by Theodora Porphyrogenita, the sister of Zoe. The two would later go on to rule together. By the time of his blinding, Michael had already taken monastic vows.
The Varangians are famous for one fact. They didn't care who sat on the throne. Who ever it was, they were loyal to. Well, except in the one example I gave you. In your example, Theodora was sitting on the throne. And Varangians served the throne, regardless who was sitting on it.
Not sure how well that's going to work when the Varangian guard also helped to stage a coup in 1071 and Wagner are part of the ultranationalist ideology prevalent within the Russian ruling class that sees Belarus as part of Russia.
The only thing that's just tid bit completely insane about Lukashenko's plan is that he's hiring a group of convicts and murderers led by a violent psychopath with a history of organizing coups against their employers.
So all in all, I'm happy with his decision.
You forget one thing, these guys aren't honour-bound Warriors on a quest to enrich themselves and bring glory to their name. They are bandits, thugs, gangsters and the occasional mercenary. Having them concentrated into one small country is fucking goodbye to everything, unless harshly controlled.
They could bring instant terror to Europe and likely the rest of the world, if they saw *any* personal benefit to it.
How? NATO countries are VERY prepared for an unannounced incursion and if Wagner mobilized 25k troops anywhere near a border, there would be ample prep time. They also have weak to no air cover. And what would be the game plan? Take over Poland or Latvia? Not happening.
If they became a threat at scale using global terrorism, we would enforce the whole "no distinction between terrorists and the countries that harbor them." Vlad's military is a joke and his only card left to play in every incident is nuclear which makes him look weaker every time he uses it.
This whole episode rings of episodes from Byzantine history. I can't think of a singular event, but there was always an angry general trying to stage a coup or leveraging his troops' loyalty for power. Negotiating with mercenaries, exiling foes, at some point I expect the curtain to be pulled back and we see someone named Justinian or Theodosia pulling the levers.
> They will tell us about the weapons: which worked well, and which did not. Tactics, and weapons, and how to attack, how to defend. It is priceless. This is what we need to take from the Wagner fighters.
What worked well: Western weaponry
What didn't work well: Russia weaponry
Eh, you can realize that something would be easy and still not have the troops needed to do that something. From the sounds of the more recent reports, his forces in Russia that day were a small fraction of the huge numbers that were getting dropped (sometimes from Prigozhin). So it's not unreasonable that he got to a point where he didn't see a path to victory, but still could see that victory would be far easier than he thinks it should be.
Nobody came out looking good at the end of the day.
Prigozhin: looked like someone who didn’t know what the end game should’ve been like. He quit when things were about to get real. True Chickenhawk.
Putin: looked like an old grandpa who lost control of his fighting kids. He still can’t call out Prigozhin by name.
Shuego: well that buffoon out-buffooned himself somehow.
Russian Military: The Ukrainians dressed them down over the past year. Prigozhin pimp slapped them.
Most of Ukraine's weapons are Russian weaponry; they work well enough when maintained and utilized properly.
In 2014, Ukraine also had a corrupt military with old, poorly maintained weapons; ironically the "rebels" in the east that were supported by Russia raided some Ukrainian military depots only to find that nothing worked.
The Ukrainian military of 2022 (and now 2023) was light years ahead of the force in 2014.
What worked well: indescribable violence
What didn't work well: senior military professionals who weren't ideologically charged to commit indescribable violence.
Russian military doctrine encouraged the commission of mass war crimes and crimes against humanity long before Wagner was established.
Both the senior leadership of the standard Russian military and Wagner are responsible for the war crimes in Ukraine.
Wagner and the Russian Army are quite equal on the war-crimes.
Wagner with a 10th of the forces is equal to a horde of fucked up lunatics with guns and a modern-ish military.
In committing war-crimes.
Yeah Russian weapons work perfectly fine.
It’s the training/command structure that is corrupt/the problem.
Gun goes bang
Missile goes boom
But if you point the wrong amount of guns and your missile is hitting targets mapped during the USSR then you don’t get anywhere with it.
Plenty of nato country’s still use Russian weapons for a reason. Look at the pkm and Poland. They considered it so important/irreplaceable by the west to their style of fighting they had to create their own version to use in nato.
Yup. Russian military doctrine has not evolved since the cold war. It’s a top down command structure. Literally take out the commanders and the army is left confused. Look at that long convoy when the invasion started, a perfect example of poor command, poor logistics, and over poor everything. You have units with kits from the 70s, tanks with reactive armor full of cardboard, and bullet vest stuffed with paper and other. Outside of poor leadership/command, currutption is the number one killer of Russian troops.
The type of corruption is important. US funding is also full of corrupt mofos, but no one messes with the supply chain. The product may be upcharged and funds embezzled, but Johnny always gets his gun. In fact, if Johnny loses his gun, there's probably 3 more where that came from. In Russia, the costs don't change, but the numbers do. Suddenly 5 tanks become 3.5 and the line gets weakened as 3 working tanks suddenly become 1 after the first altercation. The costs compound but the request for 2 more tanks then become 1 and that 1 is probably still in production. You don't really recover from that.
> In fact, if Johnny loses his gun, there's probably 3 more where that came from.
If Johnny loses his gun outside combat then that gun is being found, and no one is going home until it is.
But yeah, the US version is corruption is much more bribing members of congress to earmark more money to build tanks that the army doesn't need.
What doesn't work is Russian tactics. Destroy everything and terrorize the opponent, that works in Africa and the Middle East, but the Ukrainians are a tough bunch backed by NATO.
The Russians ran out of steam a while ago, and now they are on defense, which they've never really done before.
The biggest hurdle to nuclear weapons is not missile technology, because you don’t need to be that accurate, 1960s era tech is fine.
Nor is weapons design a problem. The most basic design was figured out in the 1940s and so fool proof that they didn’t even need to test it before using it on Hiroshima.
The biggest hurdle is, and has always been, sufficient fissile material.
Not having codes is a small issue. They can just gather the fissile material and make a new weapon.
The Ukrainian and US intelligence agencies have said that no nuclear arms have made their way into Belarus, as of a few days ago. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-intelligence-chief-says-russia-hasnt-yet-delivered-any-nukes-to-belarus-contrary-to-putins-claim/
What if Putin staged this to get Wagner to take over Belarus and then force the people there to fight for Russia? I know this is highly unlikely but it would be worth considering just incase.
If Putin staged this it didn't go as he'd planned. He came out looking weak. Obviously that doesn't mean that he or others can't take advantage of the resulting situation, but I definitely don't think this whole thing was staged.
The fact that the internal security services are like dogs who chewed on some shoes, should let you know that this wasn't staged.
They have said absolutely not a single thing that isn't scripted, doesn't mean the events were scripted.
I don't see that happening as this was a big hit to Putin's image. What I could see is Luka is reported to be in bad health. Allow Prigozhin in Belarus and then when Luka goes you have someone in place to take over. You also have the issue that totally dissolving Wagner at this point isn't an option given all the operations they have going on in Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere. So you move them to Belarus were you can better keep them at a distance but still close enough to control.
Imagine the trouble for NATO SOF to keep an eye on them in Belarus. It's a real stinky place to put a bunch of gangsters, it's hard to pick them out of a crowd. On the other hand, gangsters are kind of easy.
I think rather, Russia put nukes in Belarus. But they are controlled by Russia. Additional Russian troops in Belarus, taking orders only from Moscow, actually.
Another step in fully absorbing Belarus into Russia.
Is this Putin's 200 IQ big brain idea - We failed to take Ukraine, so let's just take Belarus instead via some bizarre game of thrones reject sub plot.
Too many people in here thinking that real life is Civ 6
What does it even mean to "take Moscow"? And what would they gain from it, other than guaranteed bullets to the head?
They had maybe 10K troops. They could have killed some Kremlin politicians, looted, and taken some hostages for a week. Then a few divisions would descend on the city and wipe them out.
There was 0 chance that Putin would allow his capital to remain occupied for more than a week even if it meant pulling divisions from Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to make inroads at the front.
And no- people werent just going to rise up with Prigozhin and overthrow Putin. There is no evidence from any serious expert on Russia suggesting that Prigozhin had the popular support or support from enough oligarchs, local governors, mayors, etc. to actually coup Putin just by assaulting Moscow.
Right now Prigozhin and his mercenaries are alive and thats all they wanted. To live a few more days and figure out next steps afterward. Even if they get whacked in a few weeks or months, having a 1% chance of surviving is better than the absolute 0% chance they would have had if they entered Moscow.
> Right now Prigozhin and his mercenaries are alive and thats all they wanted.
I agree with you on everything except this. There was surely a grander scheme in place that fell apart. Prigozhin was confident that his manoeuvres would at least allow his PMC to remain independent, and perhaps more. Now they're relegated to a life in exile.
He wagered 'all in' and lost. Few things went wrong. Mainly he didn’t get support he hoped for. Going in alone was a suicide without any hope of even getting into Moscow. He would not hold it for a week because he would not hold it for an hour.
They apparently only had 8000 men, rather than the 25k Prigozhin was boasting of. And a lot of them were criminals who he promised amnesty to if they followed him to Moscow. His only chance was hoping that disaffected parts of the Russian army joined up with him, he didn't have anywhere near the resources to hold off the entire Russian army. Especially while still dividing his forces with the front. When they didn't, he just bailed as soon as he reached the edge of the Moscow defenders rather than escalate and get them all killed.
This.
They're going to train and augment the current Spetznaz forces - the same unit that put down the protests in 2020.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th\_Spetsnaz\_Brigade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_Spetsnaz_Brigade)
Strangely enough, Wagner operatives were arrested as external agitators during the protests.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021\_Belarusian\_protests#Presidential\_campaign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests#Presidential_campaign)
Maybe Lukashenko would rather have them in his pocket rather than Putin's?
This is the worse take lol. Having Wagner in your country benefits a lot due to gaining a share on resources on third world countries. Plus it increases the influence of political power to belarus.
Lukashenko was in the military, so having an actual army to fight foreign war for your own influence is a big win since his own countryman don't want to fight his wars.
Cmon reddit do better at analyzing , Twitter does a wayyy better job lol
First Russian dictator to also be awarded an Oscar. Unlikely and undeserved possibly but we know how the academy is. Also how they gonna outdo that slap?
Anyone who thinks lukashenko is some bumbling idiot is so ignorant to European politics they're not worth talking to, or there the weird type of person who just pretends to believe what they want to be true, just because he's a bad person doesn't mean he's some idiot
Lukashenko is what a man with no good options looks like. The fact he's still the leader of his country not currently fighting Ukraine is testament to his smarts.
It's the fact this bumbling idiot stayed in power so long. Every other dictator in Europe is gone..... Usually you have to have create some amazing economic progress..... But Luka is survived the all.
This 'article' is based on facts. But there is also too much speculation sold as facts while not even addressing other possibilities.
Anyway not saying it is not like this. But take it with a grain of salt.
Luka thinks he’s Sauraman to Putin’s Sauron, and that he’s now getting the Wagner as his Uruk-hai.
Problem is, he’s Sauraman with Uruk-hai and that doesn’t work out too well for them.
Honestly, calling Lukashenko dumb is pretty fucking dumb.
Look into his history and try to look beyond the memes, for a few minutes.
He stole a country. Try doing that, if you're as dumb as he is portrayed.
So a random rookie card for some player who didn’t pan out from 2019, and a Honus Wagner card. I don’t think there’s any way this trading card comes out on top.
Just Lukashenko things
[he calls himself and Putin “the most toxic people in the world”. *BFF VIBES*](https://www.newsweek.com/lukashenko-calls-himself-putin-most-harmful-toxic-people-earth-1768261)
[Claims Belarus will only join Russia if attacked…](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/16/lukashenko-belarus-russia-ukraine-war/)
[Supports China in their goal of “peace” mhmm](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64809777)
[Rushed to hospital after private meeting with Putin 🤔](https://www.ibtimes.com/belarusian-president-lukashenko-hospital-after-meeting-putin-opposition-claims-poisoning-3696270)
[Putin announced to move nukes to Belarus](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-belarus-july-putin-says-2023-06-09/)
[Lukashenko won’t hesitate to use nukes against Ukraine](https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-lukashenko-nuclear-weapons-6f97b76288f8cb9c0490c5151d588b3e)
And now Prigozhin with Wagner were sent to Belarus.
Watch the actions not their words.
>They will tell us about the weapons: which worked well, and which did not. Tactics, and weapons, and how to attack, how to defend. It is priceless. This is what we need to take from the Wagner fighters.
>There is no need to be afraid of them. We keep our ears sharp."
I wonder if he's not being overly optimistic.
Because training and documentation is their true strength and saving grace. And apparently their warroom tactics. Because these are all the thing that Mercenaries specialize in. All Belarussians are now Safer and better off than 5 days ago.
the primary threat to Belarusian has always been Lukashenko and his enforcers. whether they are safer or better off is going to depend on how all this new thing goes between prigozhin and Lukashenko.
Sooooooooo let me get this straight.
Putin calls them traitors. Then pardons everyone. Closes the justice case pubically. Then says all Wagner "can" go to Belarus.
Lusaskhenko then "gives" them a military base and explains why its good.
Ahuh...
It is me..Or does it seem like Wagner is doing exactly what it wants.
Everyone's just trying to make up a story that fits with the players whilst Russia gives out any story that makes them look in control.
Putin would Never sign off on any plan that made him look like a bitch.
Putin keeps flip flopping back and forth
Prig/Wagner are suffering 0 retribution while Russia looks leaderless.
Prig doesn't actually want Putin's job / responsibility of it / burdens of Ukraine.
But he does want to remain rich and get out of the war without being hung at the Hague for war crimes.
He and his officers must have known what it meant to cross the Russian Rubicon.
The idea he was "surprised" by threats upon his family is ludicrous.
The shear planning/logistics it takes to move that many people / that much equipment.
Questions that remain --
What did he get from Rostov / Voronezh? What was the actual mission?
Why is Wagner suffering 0 blowback from the event?
Why are they just being allow to relocate to Belarus without disbanding?
How do you pay 25,000 Mercenaries without Government Funding?
How do you guarantee safety from Putin?
Answer to both - Acquire a country.
>Putin gets plausible deniability.
...I don't think he gets to do that when the US has so much intelligence on them they know their breakfast before they do.
Wagner is suffering consequences. It's just being quietly enforced while the information flip flops and they don't want to incite another rebellious march.
* They've been exiled to a neighboring country. If they don't want to be there, they can either sign with MoD or go home.
* Heavy equipment is being turned over to the MoD right now
* Belarus now gets an infantry based PMC
>Why are they just being allow to relocate to Belarus without disbanding?
Well, Putin is clearly in a very weak position. Prigozhin has made himself into a Russian hero, and Wagner has gotten a reputation for being far more effective than the Russian military.
As Prigozhin marched, there were reports of many refusing to fight them, and just letting them pass.
I don't think that Putin is in a position where he can afford to harshly punish Wagner and Prigozhin.
No matter what his long-term plans may be, everything that has happened has made Putin look very weak. All of Russia was confronted the real possibility of Putin being forcibly removed from power. Not to mention everything Prigozhin said about the war being mismanaged and started as the result of a lie. I think that Prigozhin is becoming more popular than Putin, and I'll bet that large portions of the population were rooting for him.
That thought must terrify Putin. And on top of it all, he is still stuck in this war that he is losing, with no end in sight, now without the Wagner troops they were relying on. And I can only assume that all of this has seriously encouraged the FRL and RVC. They've had a glimpse of how an attempted rebellion might go down. Panic across the Russian government general support from the public, limited resistance from the army.
That's a good tactical advantage, train individual soldiers better than the Russian model that Belarus inherited. But the command structure of Wagner also has been developed on the fly in the field and had the adaptability to change to suit the mission, which Russian military does not allow. A big part of having capable elite units, is that the elite soldiers can enjoy some privilege and autonomy to apply their additional training and other resources, to succeed where top down command micromanagement can't. In Russia, the necessary changes cannot be made. But if they need more forces in a vassal state, and they have a non Russian population to draft from to use for Russian military ends, then they will amass an army that way, still under operational command from the top, but without the institutionally entrenched grafters skimming however they can.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/27/7408766/) reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, expects that the Wagner Group commanders will share their experience and help the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus improve their skills.
> "Quote:"Now there is a lot of talk and chatter: 'Wagner, Wagner, Wagner'.
> Background: Russian outlet Verstka reported that camps for the placement of Wagner Group fighters are being built in Belarus after the agreement between the country's self-proclaimed leader Alexander Lukashenko and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group financier.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14kgd0t/lukashenko_explains_what_he_wants_to_get_out_of/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~689729 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Wagner**^#1 **Belarus**^#2 **State**^#3 **Group**^#4 **Service**^#5
Previously, Lukashenko had an army that refused to go to war in Ukraine. Now, with Wagner and Prigozhin, he has an army that is better at following orders and isn't opposed to going to war.
For all his faults, Lukashenko's not dumb. He knows how the game is played, he wouldn't have stayed in power for so long if he didn't. Putin's protected him from being overthrown before, and I think up until now there's been this unspoken relationship of "the only reason you haven't been coup'd is because of me," with Lukashenko doing just enough to keep Putin satisfied without angering the Belarusian population too much. But now that he allegedly bailed Putin out and Russia's only looking weaker and weaker, I think he's in a position where he sees he has a bit more leverage over Putin.
Like Fletcher Christian was told by his lieutenants after setting captain Bligh adrift in the South Pacific: “ the men have mutineer once already. They can do it again”
Kadirov was having a bucket of popcorn watching all of Prigozhin’s antics and updates. Even though he offered to deal with it for Putin, he had to be taking notes.
It's almost like creating heavily armed mercenary groups with no oversight that rival your own military capabilities is a bad idea.
Good thing we'd never do that....................................................................
The point is not capability but deniability of foreign operations and lack of oversight to avoid scandal, contractors committed much of the worst atrocities of the Iraq war, infact it's very likely more contractors died in Iraq then soldiers, with no published numbers so no backlash possible
must be handy to have a mercenary group in your debt when there will be next election or demonstration
He will have the leader of the mercenary group, and any loyalists who don't join the Russian military or just return to civilian life. We will just have to wait and see who goes where, and who does a swan dive off the balcony. Also keep in mind that a lot of speculation around Wagner's future involves the assumption that Putin and Lukashenko keep their word. Those men are liars who will betray their allies the moment it becomes advantageous.
Not even advantageous imo, the moment they CAN and save face. I think Putin will probably do his best to assassinate Prigozhin, part of the issue if he does it publicly Putin probably loses a lot of support. Which he loses some anyway, at this point. Dunno how much more he can afford to lose with a literal attempted coup on the books.
>part of the issue if he does it publicly Putin probably loses a lot of respect and support People keep saying that, but I don't see it. I think he is fine killing Prigs in a way that would make it obvious that it was hi order. And that way he will give message to everyone who dares challange him. That's actually the only way he get back a fraction of respect that he lost during this coup.
Alexei Navalny is proof already of what happens if you challenge Putin. That man must have cojones the size of a moon or planet.
The problem is that message is to the oligarchs "I will kill you". Those are the people who he needs the support of most, not to mention that Prigozhin IS publicly a war hero, an unlawful and unceremonious murder would land him in legal trouble, at minimum. Obviously we have always seen Putin lie and do whatever he wants, but a murder without some form of deniability? Never. The only way to have gotten back some form of respect I agree is to have him killed and known it was due to Putin, I just think that legally it's hard to do without also having a civil war on your hands.
This is just untrue. Putin has been nakedly and brazenly behind many assassination attempts and successful assassinations. Someone pointed out Litvinenko’s assassination with polonium, which comes from a nuclear reactor and does NOT occur in nature. Pretty much tell-take evidence it was a state approved murder. Even crazier is that this was in the UK and not on Russian soil. Don’t know how much more transparent it can get that Putin was behind it than that. Also pertinent and related are the Skripals, Navalny, and apartment building explosions in Russia that may have been the FSB’s doing to start a war in Chechnya. Also, watch Putin’s address from yesterday. He has no problem using doublespeak, lies, and just babbling nonsense to spin a narrative out of nothing. They will have no problem inventing some semi-benign reason for Prigozhin’s death, or perhaps Putin will just smirk and say “he died” (watch his interview with Letterman after the Kursk submarine tragedy). All in all, Putin is a cold blooded killer and don’t see him letting Prigozhin stay alive for long for making him look so weak.
>Someone pointed out Litvinenko’s assassination with polonium, which comes from a nuclear reactor and does NOT occur in nature. Polonium does occur in nature and it is thought to be one of the reasons why tobacco usage has such a high risk of cancer compared to inhaling the smoke from other burning plant matter. Tobacco plants absorb a lot of polonium from their environment. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0265931X03001188
Just a lol polonium in your vodka. Nothing quite says 'nation-state assassination' like polonium poisoning, or something equally exotic.
There's no way Prigozhin isn't on edge for an assassination like that, but I agree, Putin will most def be trying to find a way to do that as soon as he can. The point I'm making isn't that they aren't going to try to assassinate him, just more as to the why is he even alive right now and allowed to go to Belarus versus arrested and tried.
> Those are the people who he needs the support of most This is kind of a common misconception. Putin is not a traditional dictator in this way. When he took power in 2000, he met with the actual oligarchs (not all rich Russians are "oligarchs") and threatened them to get in line or else. The ones who didn't, he threw in prison for tax evasion and even potentially/probably had one killed -- Boris Berezovsky, who was instrumental in helping Putin get into power in the first place. A lot of people cite the CGP Grey video on dictators in reference to Putin, but it doesn't quite fit. Putin actually has (or at least had, until the insanity of this war) a broad base of support among Russians. He's never shown himself as being afraid of the "oligarchs" or kowtowing to them in any way. His standing up to the oligarchs -- hated by the Russians for exploiting the Russian economy for so long -- is a large part of why he had such broad support among average Russians. (It also helps that he himself is enormously independently wealthy after so many years stealing from the Russian people.) Now he does have a tighter inner-inner circle, people whose support perhaps does matter, but the "oligarchs" it seems he mostly sees as a band of spoiled children to keep in line.
You’ve hit the nail on the head. Putin needs to make an example of Prigs or others will get ideas The whole thing makes Putin look weak You do not call someone a traitor and then forgive them a day after Putin hates being betrayed and will do anything to those that do He doesn’t need the peoples support to do what he wants. He’s unfortunately convinced the Russian public that there is no other option than him
Putin assassinates Prig, blames Luka. Wagner troops turn on Luka. -Scenario #236 of #10,000
This would be an awful scenario for Putin, if Prig dies, he does NOT want Luka taking credit for it, at the minimum you want it understood that if Prig dies it was because he crossed Putin and he paid for that. It's important to his strong guy image. Imagine how embarrassing it already is to have someone else do your negotiating for you, Russian propaganda is already criticizing Putin, to be seen as forgiving a traitor then LUKA goes for that kill would be incredibly embarrassing for Putin. Not saying it's not a possibility, but certainly one of the ones Putin wants the least.
One Russian I know thinks this is a ploy to get Wagner troops deployed to Belarus without alarming NATO.
Russian troops staged their invasion of Ukraine in part from Belarus. I don’t think this theory will hold much water.
Yup. Guessing that Wagner's rebellion was met with a "better take Lukashenko deal or I'll gladly carpet bomb everything, I don't care the cost."
Handy until they figure out that they don't need you and can just take Belarus via military coup.
Is it ever handy to have a mercenary group that has tried to overthrow it's employer?
Especially when your usual protector (Putin/Russia) is somewhat preoccupied elsewhere.
Honestly, I think he wants to use them like Varangian Guard in Constantinople. Foreign mercenaries that act as a body guards the the emperor/dictator in this case. Since they are Foreign and in small number they can't really get involved in politics. This is good for Luka to protect him from domestic enemies, and Russian assassins if he gets on the wrong side of Putin. And this is good for Wagner as it shelters them from Russia, and they are likely paid well.
Exactly. Wagner "training" the military could very well be a euphemism for embedding Wagner in the military to keep the military from finally overthrowing him or force the military at gunpoint to follow insane orders.
Right. Because Prigozihn has proven to be above coups.
if you pet him regulary
eww.
like puppy that goes on walks,very long walks
And is being sent to live on his uncles farm in Belarus where he will have lots of nice space to run around and definitely won't get put down.
lol! I'll let you do it.
no thank you he has the rabies
It was mutiny, it wasn't a coup. They didn't give him ammo, they tried to disband his PMC. Dude took a risk and got a favorable outcome.
Driving your army to the capital with the express aim to get the Defence Secretary and top general fired, and arguably dethrone Putin (him fleeing indicates that he thought that was possible) is a coup attempt.
Prig never wanted to dethrone Putin. He loves Putin. The reason he stopped his mutiny is because he realised Putin was not going to side with him. He honestly thought if he put pressure on Putin to decide between Prigozhin or Shoigu that Putin would side with Prigozhin. When this turned out to not be the case Prig took the offer to ditch and run.
>When this turned out to not be the case Prig took the offer to ditch and run. I wouldn't necessarily assume that turned out to not be the case. There's plenty of rumours that Shoigu will be dismissed within the next month or two. Putin can't dismiss him immediately because then it will have the appearance of him caving to Prigozhin, which would make him look extremely weak. Keep in mind, Prigozhin was leaving Ukraine/Russia in either case. He'd been planning to leave the conflict since early May because he'd lost too many senior officers, and if he lost any more, he'd lose unit cohesion. So while this might look from the outside like Putin rebuked him and exiled him to Belarus, it's quite possible that Putin caved to Prigozhin's demands and everything else is just a show to save face (remember, Prigozhin and Putin are best pals, and Prigozhin never once called out Putin, and Putin never once called out Prigozhin). Prigozhin will remain the head of PMC Wagner which will continue its operations in Africa. Whether he's in Rostov, Moscow, or Minsk doesn't really make any difference.
It’s nice to read an actual level headed response that factors in a lot of possibilities. There’s so many uneducated hot takes about this that it hurts.
They didn't go to the capital, they struck a deal before they got there. It was a successfully planned and executed mutiny. Drove halfway to Moscow, shot down critical aircraft, won the hearts and minds, but stopped once a deal was struck. Not a coup.
Good point. In the past 100 years Thailand (where I live) has had 19 coup attempts, 12 successful. That wasn't even a coup attempt; you have to be much larger to even attempt.
This is plausible. Lukashenko's military didn't do what he wanted, now he can make them.
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Wagner recruits in Russia? Sure. The operatives that are making them the money to even attempt this stunt? Hardly .
Wagner has used human shields, but they are probably the most experienced military force worldwide atm.
To me it sounds more like an inroad by Russia to fully seize control of Belarus and take Lukashenko out of the picture. This could all be orchestrated to create a Belarus “Wagnerized” army that will be willing to attack Ukraine. I don’t trust a word out of Putin or Prickozin’s mouth.
Yeah right. Russia and Belarus have literally been a step away from a formalized single state for decades. They are extremely close and tied together in many aspects. Lukashenko just likes the golden chair, otherwise we'd likely have seen them merge.
Lukashenko actually aspired to be president of the Union State when negotiations first started in 1996. Before Putin's rise Lukashenko thought he had a chance at being the top dog. He was genuinely popular in Belarus at one point in the late '90s and Russians unanimously hated Yeltsin so they were open to any alternative. In 2000 Lukashenko was made the Chairman of the Supreme State Council of the Union State, making him the nominal leader. Belarus had a major protest that ended in violence in 1999 over the prospect of a full merger. That made Lukashenko slow down negotiations and walked back talk of a full merger. the Union State. Putin was then elected to the presidency in 2000 and quickly eclipsed Lukashenko in profile, fully extinguishing Lukashenko's enthusiasm for the idea. It's possible that thinks having Wagner will give him sort of leverage to be Putin's successor.
Any grand conspiratorial scheme that involves Putin's strong man image taking a hit is not compatible with Putinism. Even if it involves taking another country without much bloodshed. Pride and ego above all else in the mafia state. But to be fair, we should keep our minds open to an eventuality where Prighozin and Putin decide to ally against Luka given the circumstances of some future time.
Look man I didn’t sleep through world history classes just to have it thrown in my face decades later.
Learn from it, or become it.
If I don't learn it, I become an emperor with foreign guards? Talking about upgrades here.
I dunno having a personal army of bodyguards didn't do all that much to make your typical Byzantine emperor much safer. They were just as likely to have their eyes gouged out and be thrown into a latrine pit by said bodyguarda
I dont recall any examples of the varangians betraying their emperors?
I want to say there are examples of them switching loyalties at a sudden change though, as they're loyal to the title (and the paycheck that comes from it) than the person, though I cant recall particulars at work.
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About ten minutes later Doukas invented the concept of ‘Lawyers’ because the contract stating ‘loyalty to the one sitting on the throne’ wasn’t as iron clad as the guys protecting the chair.
>Nikephoros II, was assassinated and the first actions the varangians make (a minute or two afterwards) is to pledge allegiance to his murderer, still covered in his blood. That's hardly possible. Nikephoros II was killed in 969, while the varangian guard was only found 19 years later in 988
There's a lot of examples of praetorians betraying emperors in rome, but I don't know shit about varangians.
Yea but the praetorians were roman, the varangians were not.
Bad deal, those men often didn't last more than three years in office before their "guards" were bribed to knock them off and install a new paycheck, I mean Emperor.
Yep. Let's hope it happens to the Potato Emperor too.
The Palatine Guard did that, but to my knowledge the Varangian Guard never actually killed an Emperor, though they were sometimes very quick to change loyalty to the new one if the old one was assassinated by some third party.
I was referencing Emperor Nikephoros II being assassinated, though you are correct and they did not personally kill the man. Things seem to point to them not only having let the man who would assassinate him commit the deed but then immediately swearing fealty to him after the fact, implying they were complicit in allowing the act to happen. Granted this is quite literally ancient history and that's speculation. But you are right the Palatine Guard had the hots for knocking off Emperors and the Varangians were as stalwart as a group of personal mercenaries could be.
I missed out hugely on Transformers growing up, and I’m also in the playing catch-up game regarding technology and robotics.
If its not working right, turn it off and turn it on again. ...there, you're all caught up.
You didn't miss much, once the white walkers were killed and kings landing was sacked it was pretty boring afterwards.
Depending on Prig’s ambitions they could either be the Verangian Guard or the Praetorian Guard.
>Praetorian Guard. Pig the new dictator of Belarus......
This feels fairly likely. Integrating Wagner into the military is a bigger risk to Luka ultimately than a protection. I just think he's too big of a dipshit to realize
The Varangian Guard was a different ethnicity that didn't speak and could never be pulled into any plots against the emperor as no one in Constantinople would ever accept the rule of some Scandinavian dudes. I don't think the Belarusians are overly attached to Lukashenko nor do I really think they're going to look as Russians, including Wagner mercs, as "foreigners"
Except that one time, when the Varangian Guard tried to assassinate the Emperor Nikephoros III Botaneiates, and failed. Who promptly pardoned his would-be assassins, and brushed it off like nothing happened.
This works well, but you want to make sure you don't repeat the mistakes of that lunatic dictator in Equatorial Guinea. He got executed by foreign mercs because he'd convinced the the local firing squad he was a goddamn wizard who would haunt them or something.
True, until the bodyguard corps inevitably accumulates its own independent wealth through ownership of land and businesses and decides to play kingmaker. See, e.g. Varangians as you mentioned, Praetorian guard, Janissary corps, Swiss guard, etc.
The Varangians only did it once, and failed tho... They tried to assassinate Nikephoros III Botaneiates. Who just brushed it off, and pardoned his would-be assassins. ...now that I think about it, this sounds rather familiar.
Harald Hardrada literally deposed, blinded and castrated Manuel V to put Empress Zoe on the throne, and Hardrada was a Varangian.
>Manuel V Do you mean Michael V Kalaphates? He was deposed before he was blinded and exiled, and was no longer the Emperor, having been usurped by Theodora Porphyrogenita, the sister of Zoe. The two would later go on to rule together. By the time of his blinding, Michael had already taken monastic vows. The Varangians are famous for one fact. They didn't care who sat on the throne. Who ever it was, they were loyal to. Well, except in the one example I gave you. In your example, Theodora was sitting on the throne. And Varangians served the throne, regardless who was sitting on it.
Not sure how well that's going to work when the Varangian guard also helped to stage a coup in 1071 and Wagner are part of the ultranationalist ideology prevalent within the Russian ruling class that sees Belarus as part of Russia.
The only thing that's just tid bit completely insane about Lukashenko's plan is that he's hiring a group of convicts and murderers led by a violent psychopath with a history of organizing coups against their employers. So all in all, I'm happy with his decision.
You forget one thing, these guys aren't honour-bound Warriors on a quest to enrich themselves and bring glory to their name. They are bandits, thugs, gangsters and the occasional mercenary. Having them concentrated into one small country is fucking goodbye to everything, unless harshly controlled. They could bring instant terror to Europe and likely the rest of the world, if they saw *any* personal benefit to it.
How? NATO countries are VERY prepared for an unannounced incursion and if Wagner mobilized 25k troops anywhere near a border, there would be ample prep time. They also have weak to no air cover. And what would be the game plan? Take over Poland or Latvia? Not happening. If they became a threat at scale using global terrorism, we would enforce the whole "no distinction between terrorists and the countries that harbor them." Vlad's military is a joke and his only card left to play in every incident is nuclear which makes him look weaker every time he uses it.
The problem with the position of bodyguard is that we just saw exactly how loyal mercenaries are.
This whole episode rings of episodes from Byzantine history. I can't think of a singular event, but there was always an angry general trying to stage a coup or leveraging his troops' loyalty for power. Negotiating with mercenaries, exiling foes, at some point I expect the curtain to be pulled back and we see someone named Justinian or Theodosia pulling the levers.
> They will tell us about the weapons: which worked well, and which did not. Tactics, and weapons, and how to attack, how to defend. It is priceless. This is what we need to take from the Wagner fighters. What worked well: Western weaponry What didn't work well: Russia weaponry
I hope they tell him how marching to Moscow worked much better than marching to Kyiv.
Didn't you hear Prigozhins latest rant? He was himself dumbfounded how easy it would be to take down Moscow.
I called it off when I realized I was going to win easily!
Eh, you can realize that something would be easy and still not have the troops needed to do that something. From the sounds of the more recent reports, his forces in Russia that day were a small fraction of the huge numbers that were getting dropped (sometimes from Prigozhin). So it's not unreasonable that he got to a point where he didn't see a path to victory, but still could see that victory would be far easier than he thinks it should be.
Nobody came out looking good at the end of the day. Prigozhin: looked like someone who didn’t know what the end game should’ve been like. He quit when things were about to get real. True Chickenhawk. Putin: looked like an old grandpa who lost control of his fighting kids. He still can’t call out Prigozhin by name. Shuego: well that buffoon out-buffooned himself somehow. Russian Military: The Ukrainians dressed them down over the past year. Prigozhin pimp slapped them.
He took Rostov basically without a fight.
Right?!?
Most of Ukraine's weapons are Russian weaponry; they work well enough when maintained and utilized properly. In 2014, Ukraine also had a corrupt military with old, poorly maintained weapons; ironically the "rebels" in the east that were supported by Russia raided some Ukrainian military depots only to find that nothing worked. The Ukrainian military of 2022 (and now 2023) was light years ahead of the force in 2014.
What worked well: indescribable violence What didn't work well: senior military professionals who weren't ideologically charged to commit indescribable violence.
Russian military doctrine encouraged the commission of mass war crimes and crimes against humanity long before Wagner was established. Both the senior leadership of the standard Russian military and Wagner are responsible for the war crimes in Ukraine.
Wagner and the Russian Army are quite equal on the war-crimes. Wagner with a 10th of the forces is equal to a horde of fucked up lunatics with guns and a modern-ish military. In committing war-crimes.
Nah, Russian weapons work well enough, they just waste them on civilian targets.
Yeah Russian weapons work perfectly fine. It’s the training/command structure that is corrupt/the problem. Gun goes bang Missile goes boom But if you point the wrong amount of guns and your missile is hitting targets mapped during the USSR then you don’t get anywhere with it. Plenty of nato country’s still use Russian weapons for a reason. Look at the pkm and Poland. They considered it so important/irreplaceable by the west to their style of fighting they had to create their own version to use in nato.
Yup. Russian military doctrine has not evolved since the cold war. It’s a top down command structure. Literally take out the commanders and the army is left confused. Look at that long convoy when the invasion started, a perfect example of poor command, poor logistics, and over poor everything. You have units with kits from the 70s, tanks with reactive armor full of cardboard, and bullet vest stuffed with paper and other. Outside of poor leadership/command, currutption is the number one killer of Russian troops.
The type of corruption is important. US funding is also full of corrupt mofos, but no one messes with the supply chain. The product may be upcharged and funds embezzled, but Johnny always gets his gun. In fact, if Johnny loses his gun, there's probably 3 more where that came from. In Russia, the costs don't change, but the numbers do. Suddenly 5 tanks become 3.5 and the line gets weakened as 3 working tanks suddenly become 1 after the first altercation. The costs compound but the request for 2 more tanks then become 1 and that 1 is probably still in production. You don't really recover from that.
> In fact, if Johnny loses his gun, there's probably 3 more where that came from. If Johnny loses his gun outside combat then that gun is being found, and no one is going home until it is. But yeah, the US version is corruption is much more bribing members of congress to earmark more money to build tanks that the army doesn't need.
What doesn't work is Russian tactics. Destroy everything and terrorize the opponent, that works in Africa and the Middle East, but the Ukrainians are a tough bunch backed by NATO. The Russians ran out of steam a while ago, and now they are on defense, which they've never really done before.
Well, they haven't done it in 80 years or so anyway.
*furiously jots down on paper*
What worked well: plenty of cannon fodder What didn't work well: low turnover of troops
Wagner people & Prigozhin are probably going to regret going to Belarus instead of just taking Moscow.
Now they can just take Belarus, still get your own country with a lot less chance of getting killed in the process.
Additionally, as per a month or so ago. __Belarus was recently given nuclear arms by Putin and Russia.__ So that’s nice
But not the codes.
1234
That’s the same combination as my luggage!
/r/unexpectedSpaceballs
You have received a txt. document from totallynotthecia.
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The biggest hurdle to nuclear weapons is not missile technology, because you don’t need to be that accurate, 1960s era tech is fine. Nor is weapons design a problem. The most basic design was figured out in the 1940s and so fool proof that they didn’t even need to test it before using it on Hiroshima. The biggest hurdle is, and has always been, sufficient fissile material. Not having codes is a small issue. They can just gather the fissile material and make a new weapon.
You have way too much faith in Russian security protocols.
You have way too much faith that Reddit has any idea of how secure Russian nuclear codes are.
The Ukrainian and US intelligence agencies have said that no nuclear arms have made their way into Belarus, as of a few days ago. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-intelligence-chief-says-russia-hasnt-yet-delivered-any-nukes-to-belarus-contrary-to-putins-claim/
What if Putin staged this to get Wagner to take over Belarus and then force the people there to fight for Russia? I know this is highly unlikely but it would be worth considering just incase.
Putin got on a plane, made a speech, yelled at people and made some more speeches. Putin is not special.
If Putin staged this it didn't go as he'd planned. He came out looking weak. Obviously that doesn't mean that he or others can't take advantage of the resulting situation, but I definitely don't think this whole thing was staged.
The fact that the internal security services are like dogs who chewed on some shoes, should let you know that this wasn't staged. They have said absolutely not a single thing that isn't scripted, doesn't mean the events were scripted.
I don't see that happening as this was a big hit to Putin's image. What I could see is Luka is reported to be in bad health. Allow Prigozhin in Belarus and then when Luka goes you have someone in place to take over. You also have the issue that totally dissolving Wagner at this point isn't an option given all the operations they have going on in Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere. So you move them to Belarus were you can better keep them at a distance but still close enough to control.
Imagine the trouble for NATO SOF to keep an eye on them in Belarus. It's a real stinky place to put a bunch of gangsters, it's hard to pick them out of a crowd. On the other hand, gangsters are kind of easy.
He could have just had Wagner go to Belarus. No need for a rebellion.
I think rather, Russia put nukes in Belarus. But they are controlled by Russia. Additional Russian troops in Belarus, taking orders only from Moscow, actually. Another step in fully absorbing Belarus into Russia.
Is this Putin's 200 IQ big brain idea - We failed to take Ukraine, so let's just take Belarus instead via some bizarre game of thrones reject sub plot.
I think in Putin's view Belarus is already his. He just has Luka there to run things because that's easier than actually absorbing it into Russia.
We need a Luka and Pringles buddy cop / road trip movie, stat! *The Road Back to Moscow: An Underdogs Story*
Too many people in here thinking that real life is Civ 6 What does it even mean to "take Moscow"? And what would they gain from it, other than guaranteed bullets to the head? They had maybe 10K troops. They could have killed some Kremlin politicians, looted, and taken some hostages for a week. Then a few divisions would descend on the city and wipe them out. There was 0 chance that Putin would allow his capital to remain occupied for more than a week even if it meant pulling divisions from Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to make inroads at the front. And no- people werent just going to rise up with Prigozhin and overthrow Putin. There is no evidence from any serious expert on Russia suggesting that Prigozhin had the popular support or support from enough oligarchs, local governors, mayors, etc. to actually coup Putin just by assaulting Moscow. Right now Prigozhin and his mercenaries are alive and thats all they wanted. To live a few more days and figure out next steps afterward. Even if they get whacked in a few weeks or months, having a 1% chance of surviving is better than the absolute 0% chance they would have had if they entered Moscow.
> Right now Prigozhin and his mercenaries are alive and thats all they wanted. I agree with you on everything except this. There was surely a grander scheme in place that fell apart. Prigozhin was confident that his manoeuvres would at least allow his PMC to remain independent, and perhaps more. Now they're relegated to a life in exile.
He wagered 'all in' and lost. Few things went wrong. Mainly he didn’t get support he hoped for. Going in alone was a suicide without any hope of even getting into Moscow. He would not hold it for a week because he would not hold it for an hour.
Also one does not make coup from the periphery but from the center. Rubicon analogies are relevant for History channel not for current situation.
The second the convoy posed a real threat the the Kremlin, they would’ve been blown to bits. Let’s not indulge in fantasies here.
Yeah… definitely a bizarre backtrack given that Wagner has taken countries down before
They apparently only had 8000 men, rather than the 25k Prigozhin was boasting of. And a lot of them were criminals who he promised amnesty to if they followed him to Moscow. His only chance was hoping that disaffected parts of the Russian army joined up with him, he didn't have anywhere near the resources to hold off the entire Russian army. Especially while still dividing his forces with the front. When they didn't, he just bailed as soon as he reached the edge of the Moscow defenders rather than escalate and get them all killed.
Maybe he’s gonna help Belarus take Russia
You got it backwards: Lukashenko will be the one regretting having agreed to let Prigozhin stay in the country. Not that he had any choice of course.
He probably wants Wagner to quell any future uprisings in Belarus for saving Prigozhin’s ass.
I worry that Prigozhin is setting up a a"retirement" program to take over after Lukaschenko has some "accident".
My thoughts as well. Pringo gets Belarus instead of Moscow.
This. They're going to train and augment the current Spetznaz forces - the same unit that put down the protests in 2020. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th\_Spetsnaz\_Brigade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_Spetsnaz_Brigade) Strangely enough, Wagner operatives were arrested as external agitators during the protests. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021\_Belarusian\_protests#Presidential\_campaign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests#Presidential_campaign) Maybe Lukashenko would rather have them in his pocket rather than Putin's?
This is the worse take lol. Having Wagner in your country benefits a lot due to gaining a share on resources on third world countries. Plus it increases the influence of political power to belarus. Lukashenko was in the military, so having an actual army to fight foreign war for your own influence is a big win since his own countryman don't want to fight his wars. Cmon reddit do better at analyzing , Twitter does a wayyy better job lol
Or wants them to leather country, via Ukraine
>leather country I think that's a gay bar here in town
Lukashenko is going to double backstab and become ruler of Russia and Wagner. He's been playing dumb the whole time waiting for this moment.
He's been playing Very Dumb.
The problem with playing dumb is eventually it stops being a game.
Luka doesn't play, he lives the role tha's how much dedication he have
A master thespian
His act is very convincing
First Russian dictator to also be awarded an Oscar. Unlikely and undeserved possibly but we know how the academy is. Also how they gonna outdo that slap?
And Caucasian. Shoo in.
Putin has been trying to get him to invade Ukraine for a long time and he keeps playing dumb about that too.
[удалено]
Anyone who thinks lukashenko is some bumbling idiot is so ignorant to European politics they're not worth talking to, or there the weird type of person who just pretends to believe what they want to be true, just because he's a bad person doesn't mean he's some idiot
Lukashenko is what a man with no good options looks like. The fact he's still the leader of his country not currently fighting Ukraine is testament to his smarts.
It's the fact this bumbling idiot stayed in power so long. Every other dictator in Europe is gone..... Usually you have to have create some amazing economic progress..... But Luka is survived the all.
This was the argument I came here to promote!
This 'article' is based on facts. But there is also too much speculation sold as facts while not even addressing other possibilities. Anyway not saying it is not like this. But take it with a grain of salt.
Criss cross apple sauce
Quitsies no startsies. TRIPLE stamp. Touch blue, make it true.
Luka thinks he’s Sauraman to Putin’s Sauron, and that he’s now getting the Wagner as his Uruk-hai. Problem is, he’s Sauraman with Uruk-hai and that doesn’t work out too well for them.
Yes, thats it I was wondering what this arrangement reminded me lol
Who is Khan in this example?
Ricardo Montalban of course.
At least Saruman does get a second chance (and wastes it).
Honestly, calling Lukashenko dumb is pretty fucking dumb. Look into his history and try to look beyond the memes, for a few minutes. He stole a country. Try doing that, if you're as dumb as he is portrayed.
Pretty sure he once hoped to replace Yeltsin. Doubt it's possible now lol
How do we know he isn't the one giving Putin orders through the shadows?
He wants a trading card against Putin.
So a random rookie card for some player who didn’t pan out from 2019, and a Honus Wagner card. I don’t think there’s any way this trading card comes out on top.
Just Lukashenko things [he calls himself and Putin “the most toxic people in the world”. *BFF VIBES*](https://www.newsweek.com/lukashenko-calls-himself-putin-most-harmful-toxic-people-earth-1768261) [Claims Belarus will only join Russia if attacked…](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/16/lukashenko-belarus-russia-ukraine-war/) [Supports China in their goal of “peace” mhmm](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64809777) [Rushed to hospital after private meeting with Putin 🤔](https://www.ibtimes.com/belarusian-president-lukashenko-hospital-after-meeting-putin-opposition-claims-poisoning-3696270) [Putin announced to move nukes to Belarus](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-belarus-july-putin-says-2023-06-09/) [Lukashenko won’t hesitate to use nukes against Ukraine](https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-lukashenko-nuclear-weapons-6f97b76288f8cb9c0490c5151d588b3e) And now Prigozhin with Wagner were sent to Belarus. Watch the actions not their words.
>They will tell us about the weapons: which worked well, and which did not. Tactics, and weapons, and how to attack, how to defend. It is priceless. This is what we need to take from the Wagner fighters. >There is no need to be afraid of them. We keep our ears sharp." I wonder if he's not being overly optimistic.
Because training and documentation is their true strength and saving grace. And apparently their warroom tactics. Because these are all the thing that Mercenaries specialize in. All Belarussians are now Safer and better off than 5 days ago.
Lukashenko is safer than 5 days ago, Belorussians just got worse jailers.
the primary threat to Belarusian has always been Lukashenko and his enforcers. whether they are safer or better off is going to depend on how all this new thing goes between prigozhin and Lukashenko.
Sooooooooo let me get this straight. Putin calls them traitors. Then pardons everyone. Closes the justice case pubically. Then says all Wagner "can" go to Belarus. Lusaskhenko then "gives" them a military base and explains why its good. Ahuh... It is me..Or does it seem like Wagner is doing exactly what it wants. Everyone's just trying to make up a story that fits with the players whilst Russia gives out any story that makes them look in control. Putin would Never sign off on any plan that made him look like a bitch. Putin keeps flip flopping back and forth Prig/Wagner are suffering 0 retribution while Russia looks leaderless. Prig doesn't actually want Putin's job / responsibility of it / burdens of Ukraine. But he does want to remain rich and get out of the war without being hung at the Hague for war crimes. He and his officers must have known what it meant to cross the Russian Rubicon. The idea he was "surprised" by threats upon his family is ludicrous. The shear planning/logistics it takes to move that many people / that much equipment. Questions that remain -- What did he get from Rostov / Voronezh? What was the actual mission? Why is Wagner suffering 0 blowback from the event? Why are they just being allow to relocate to Belarus without disbanding? How do you pay 25,000 Mercenaries without Government Funding? How do you guarantee safety from Putin? Answer to both - Acquire a country.
>What did he get from Rostov / Voronezh? What was the actual mission? Nukes Putin gets plausible deniability.
>Putin gets plausible deniability. ...I don't think he gets to do that when the US has so much intelligence on them they know their breakfast before they do.
Fuck
Wagner is suffering consequences. It's just being quietly enforced while the information flip flops and they don't want to incite another rebellious march. * They've been exiled to a neighboring country. If they don't want to be there, they can either sign with MoD or go home. * Heavy equipment is being turned over to the MoD right now * Belarus now gets an infantry based PMC
>Why are they just being allow to relocate to Belarus without disbanding? Well, Putin is clearly in a very weak position. Prigozhin has made himself into a Russian hero, and Wagner has gotten a reputation for being far more effective than the Russian military. As Prigozhin marched, there were reports of many refusing to fight them, and just letting them pass. I don't think that Putin is in a position where he can afford to harshly punish Wagner and Prigozhin. No matter what his long-term plans may be, everything that has happened has made Putin look very weak. All of Russia was confronted the real possibility of Putin being forcibly removed from power. Not to mention everything Prigozhin said about the war being mismanaged and started as the result of a lie. I think that Prigozhin is becoming more popular than Putin, and I'll bet that large portions of the population were rooting for him. That thought must terrify Putin. And on top of it all, he is still stuck in this war that he is losing, with no end in sight, now without the Wagner troops they were relying on. And I can only assume that all of this has seriously encouraged the FRL and RVC. They've had a glimpse of how an attempted rebellion might go down. Panic across the Russian government general support from the public, limited resistance from the army.
Looks like Prigozhim got Belarus for not taking Moscow.
Because training and documentation is their true strength and saving grace.
That's a good tactical advantage, train individual soldiers better than the Russian model that Belarus inherited. But the command structure of Wagner also has been developed on the fly in the field and had the adaptability to change to suit the mission, which Russian military does not allow. A big part of having capable elite units, is that the elite soldiers can enjoy some privilege and autonomy to apply their additional training and other resources, to succeed where top down command micromanagement can't. In Russia, the necessary changes cannot be made. But if they need more forces in a vassal state, and they have a non Russian population to draft from to use for Russian military ends, then they will amass an army that way, still under operational command from the top, but without the institutionally entrenched grafters skimming however they can.
Wagner is doing pretty well in Africa.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/27/7408766/) reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot) ***** > The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, expects that the Wagner Group commanders will share their experience and help the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus improve their skills. > "Quote:"Now there is a lot of talk and chatter: 'Wagner, Wagner, Wagner'. > Background: Russian outlet Verstka reported that camps for the placement of Wagner Group fighters are being built in Belarus after the agreement between the country's self-proclaimed leader Alexander Lukashenko and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group financier. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14kgd0t/lukashenko_explains_what_he_wants_to_get_out_of/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~689729 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Wagner**^#1 **Belarus**^#2 **State**^#3 **Group**^#4 **Service**^#5
good quote
Previously, Lukashenko had an army that refused to go to war in Ukraine. Now, with Wagner and Prigozhin, he has an army that is better at following orders and isn't opposed to going to war.
The only thing in question is if Lukashenko and the Belarusian state can offer then sufficient resources to satisfy their needs.
For all his faults, Lukashenko's not dumb. He knows how the game is played, he wouldn't have stayed in power for so long if he didn't. Putin's protected him from being overthrown before, and I think up until now there's been this unspoken relationship of "the only reason you haven't been coup'd is because of me," with Lukashenko doing just enough to keep Putin satisfied without angering the Belarusian population too much. But now that he allegedly bailed Putin out and Russia's only looking weaker and weaker, I think he's in a position where he sees he has a bit more leverage over Putin.
You can sense the world of shit Putin swims in nowadays if a clown like Lukashenko of all people explains what’s going on with Wagner lmao.
Like Fletcher Christian was told by his lieutenants after setting captain Bligh adrift in the South Pacific: “ the men have mutineer once already. They can do it again”
Who is paying the salaries of these thousands of people and for how long?
Seriously they make lots of money by plundering south african countries natural resources.
Kadirov was having a bucket of popcorn watching all of Prigozhin’s antics and updates. Even though he offered to deal with it for Putin, he had to be taking notes.
“Protection. I am in a lot of danger.”
Whatever Putin told Lukashenko to get out of Wagner is what Lukashenko wants
This guy must look ugly as fuck naked
It's almost like creating heavily armed mercenary groups with no oversight that rival your own military capabilities is a bad idea. Good thing we'd never do that....................................................................
No military contracted group even comes close to the capabilities of the regular U.S. military
The point is not capability but deniability of foreign operations and lack of oversight to avoid scandal, contractors committed much of the worst atrocities of the Iraq war, infact it's very likely more contractors died in Iraq then soldiers, with no published numbers so no backlash possible